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Closing Comments


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Closing Comments


Corn continued its sideways pattern with no fresh news, – ¼ (Dec). Weekly export sales were strong at over 1.2 MMT, and corn has caught up to now only trailing last year by 2%. Buyers included China (leading the way), Colombia, Taiwan, Japan and Korea. The drought in Argentina has been a big boost to both corn and bean exports this spring. NOAA weather forecasts do not offer anything to the extreme, and likely more sideways chop will continue.


Soybeans were able to rally off early lows to finish -3 ¼ (Nov). Also providing a measure of weakness was liquidation of fund length in soymeal. Weekly soybean sales were just above the range of expectations of 1.3-2.1 MMT, with half booked for 2017/18 and half for 2018/19. Year-to-date, soybeans are only 3% behind last marketing year. According to AgResource, soybean sales since early February are a record 386 mbu, which is up 86% from last year. However, today marked the 5th consecutive morning with no new 8am sales announcements. Trade volumes are low as there is nothing of note to excite action.


Wheat trended positive in the winter varieties, while spring wheat gave up gains: Chicago SRW +1 ½, Kansas City HRW +6 ¾ and Minneapolis -5 ½. Weekly export sales were a net negative 66,900 MT for 2017/18, while 2018/19 were reported at 240,400 MT. The range of expectations was 100K-500K MT. For the marketing year-to-date, wheat is down 17%, and the USDA is expected to lower its 2017/18 export projection by 5-15 mbu. EU Strategie Grains lowered their export estimate, as Russia continues to dominate the globe. There does not seem to be much positive news to latch onto – how much longer will wheat trade the Drought Monitor?


Live Cattle broke to the downside on technical selling, -2.275 (June). Tomorrow will feature the Cattle on Feed Report. Beef weekly export sales were announced at 19.9 MMT. The main buyers included Japan, Mexico, Korea and Canada.


Hogs gave up modest losses today, with June -.450. The Lean Hog Index was up $.49 to $54.02. Weekly pork exports were 17.9 MMT, with the main customers including Korea, Mexico, Japan and Canada. Trade negotiations for NAFTA and with Asia are being closely watched.


Closing Market Snapshot  


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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