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Closing Comments



Closing Comments


Long liquidation and position squaring was the story to finish the final trade day of 2014 with corn closing lower for its third consecutive session. Volume was typical holiday lightness, but was still higher than the previous six.

In ethanol, output was down 2% on the week, up 6% on the year. Ethanol stocks were up 2.7% on the week, up 16% on the year while margins slipped lower for the sixth consecutive week.

With the end of year under the market’s belt – the focus is now onto the USDA report on Jan 12th. News wire services have been seeking analyst’s estimates – expect guesses to start showing up Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

Crude, Heating Oil and Unleaded, in typical fashion, posted another new contract low today – however they are finding some strength after bouncing off the lows.

The dollar continues its march higher, putting in new contract highs today to finish the year while the metals were lower across the board.

Corn will resume trading at 8:30 CST Friday morning.

Corn closed below the 20 day moving average and finished the day down 9 ½ cents below the 4.00 mark at 3.97 in the March contract, up 8 ¼ cents for the month. December ’15 lost 9 ¾ cents to close at 4.21.  


Also in its third consecutive lower day, January soybeans finished 18 ½ lower – but 3 ½ cents higher for the month. A lot of work in the month of December for the market to finish where it started.

Looking ahead to 2015, the focus now shifts to the Jan 12th report, fund reallocation in January, South American weather and the US spring acreage battle.

Weighing on soybeans is the weakness in the meal contracts which are being pressured by the cash market weakness. Board crush margins were off for the second day in a row – but still trading in the middle of the range of the last two months.

Showers are expected to continue across southern Brazil through the weekend followed by dryness early in the week. Northern Brazil will be mostly dry, but precipitation should return to normal into next week. Temps for Brazil are seen average or below for the next 10 days, Argentina slightly higher than normal.

Soybeans broke back to the bottom of their two month trading range with January down 18 ½ cents at 10.19 ¼ and November 2015 lower by 15 ¾ at 10.05 ½.


The bears gave the bulls nothing to celebrate for New Year’s Eve.  Chicago gave the market its second consecutive double digit loss. Breaking an upward trend line and crossing the 5 and 17 day moving averages for lower.

The shift in market sentiment is away from Russian and weather concerns, and back to large global supplies and lack of US competitiveness.

Chicago March closed down 12 ½ at 5.89 ¾, KC March was off 9 ½ cents at 6.26 ½ and March Minneapolis held up the best of the bunch again, closing 5 ¼ lower at 6.22.


December futures expire today. Live cattle were able to recover into the afternoon from early session losses. Midday boxed beef higher, choice 248.70 +1.50, select 238.74 +2.00. Cash bids at 162 Kansas – 166 ask. Nebraska 162.50 bid, 166 ask.

Feb live cattle are currently trading .100 higher at 164.800 while Jan Feeders are trading higher for the fourth day in a row, currently up 1.575 at 219.900.


Hogs gave up early strength as it moved into late morning. The hog market continues its correction in time for its 10th session after the $14 break from the middle of November.

Midday mandatory FOB plant carcass 84.34 -2.39.

As of this publication Feb hogs are .125 higher on the day at 81.300 while June is .375 higher at 91.450.

Closing Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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