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Closing Comments



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Closing Comments


Corn closed –1 ¼ @ 421 (Dec18). Given the +20 ½ cent move in the last nine sessions, the market is experiencing some profit-taking going into the weekend; however, the trend remains positive. U.S. ethanol exports for the month of March were released yesterday showing 215.09 million gallons which is just shy of last months’ record of 218.68 million gallons. Mato Grosso and Parana remaining dry for the next week is a supportive fundamental and Argentine corn production estimate remains unchanged at 32.0 million tonnes as heavy rainfall continues to slow harvest. FC Stone has cut corn production in Brazil to 83.9 million tonnes compared to 86.5 million previously.


Soybeans closed -12 ¼ @ 10.37 ½ (Nov18). Giving back yesterday’s late session gains is partially based on China’ cancellation of 133,700 tonnes of old crop US beans and persisting China demand fears. The trade is still waiting on news from the US delegation in China. Talks are said to be progressing; however, traders are not confident that a conclusion is anywhere in near sight. Changing gears, Buenos Aires Grains exchange left their soybean estimate unchanged at 38.0 million tons and provided harvest progress at 61.8% up from last week’s 54%.


Wheat closed -11 ¾ @ 5.26 ¼ (Jul18). The Wheat Quality Tour continues to provide bullish support/findings as it progresses. KC wheat closed -12 @ 5.55 ¾. Although studies show positive momentum, this market is now moving into overbought territory. A correction could be looming. MPLS wheat closed -7 ½ @ 6.29. Like KC, this is also in over bought territory, but a close over the 9-bar moving average is a positive signal for trend short term.


Live Cattle followed the negative grain market trend today closing -.475 @ 106.050 (Jun18). Although today’s session was not positive, it does not feel as if the market is ready for a downtrend. June 28th of 2017 was the last time that beef prices were this high. In the short term, look for choppy to higher trade.


Hogs closed +.025 (Jun18). March US pork exports hit an all-time high for any month at 538.1 million pounds. Over the past ten days, there has been a strong uptrend in the cash market which has provided some support. Watch for choppy to higher trade short-term.

Closing Market Snapshot  


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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