COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised with increases for corn and sorghum beginning stocks and higher expected sorghum production. Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report. The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre. Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record.
Corn use changes for 2014/15 are limited to a 50-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on the lower production projection and higher projected sorghum feed and residual use. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, exports, and ending stocks are also raised for 2014/15 with sorghum production projected up 50 million bushels on the higher area reported in the Acreage report. Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the small acreage-driven decline in production. The projected range for the season-average corn price is lowered 20 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel. Lower farm prices are also projected for sorghum, barley, and oats.
A number of 2013/14 feed grain supply and use changes are made this month reflecting June 1 stocks estimates from the June 30 Grain Stocks and based on final marketing-year barley and oats trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Projected corn feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels based on lower-than-expected March-May disappearance as indicated by the June 1 stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the pace of ethanol production to date and lower projected sorghum food, seed, and industrial use, most of which is for ethanol. Sorghum exports are projected up 10 million bushels reflecting continued steady export sales and the large 2013/14 outstanding sales balance. Projected 2013/14 farm prices for corn and sorghum are lowered this month as favorable weather for developing 2014 crops reduce summer price prospects.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 7.0 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China and larger production for China, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia. Lower corn production for the United States and lower corn, barley, and oats production for Canada partly offset this month’s increases in world coarse grain output. World barley production is higher with larger crops expected in Ukraine and Russia. Foreign corn production for 2014/15 is raised 1.7 million tons. China corn production is up 2.0 million tons on higher expected area. China 2013/14 corn production is also raised, up 0.8 million tons based on the latest government estimates that include higher area. EU 2014/15 corn production is raised 0.4 million with larger crops expected in Germany and France. Serbia corn production is also raised 0.3 million tons. Partly offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction in Canada corn reflecting the lower planted area recently reported by Statistics Canada. Brazil corn production is unchanged for 2014/15, but raised 2.0 million tons for 2013/14 based on higher area indications for second crop corn.
Global 2014/15 corn trade is nearly unchanged with a reduction for Canada exports partly offset by an increase for Serbia. For 2013/14, world corn trade is raised with higher imports for the EU and South Korea more than offsetting a reduction for China. Corn exports for 2013/14 are raised for Canada, the EU, and Russia. Global corn consumption is lowered slightly for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 mostly reflecting the lower U.S. feed and residual use projections. Global 2014/15 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons higher with increases for China, Brazil, and the United States more than offsetting the Canada reduction.