The 4th of July is not until next week, but the fireworks will begin at noon today with the USDA acreage and supply/demand report. Mike Silver, with Kokomo Grain, says, historically, these reports are market movers, “Over the past 10 years, there has been an average of a 15 cent move in corn and soybeans, either direction, after these reports.” Most analysts expect a bearish set of numbers, showing an increase in planted acreage and no major shift in demand.
After the reports and the reaction, Silver says the trade will return to trading weather, “The extended weather forecast after July 5 shows an increase in hot and dry conditions. If we can get both those factors to come into play, I think we have a chance to see a positive response in both the corn and soybean markets.” He added that, during July, almost 60% of the U.S. corn crop will be pollinating and a good weather scare could lift prices significantly. Silver suggests that producers lock in down side protection while keeping up side moves open.
HAT will have the numbers at mid-day today on our web site, and reaction and analysis all weekend long.