Moisture moves into the state through the day today, coming up from the south. There still looks to be some significant rains in this system, with half to 1 inch totals possible, and a state wide range of a tenth to nearly an inch. Coverage stays at 75% of the region. The moisture comes relatively slowly, so in areas where we do see close to an inch, it will take a good 12-18 hours or more to accumulate those totals. That means we should see areas in central and southern Indiana handle the extra water in ok fashion, but will have to be on the lookout for some localized flooding, especially river flooding where we may still be dealing with some ice flows. Farther north, where the soil profile is not yet free of frost…there will be potential for more widespread ponding and flooding.
Warmer than normal air holds in over the weekend and into early next week, with some of the warmest air of this cycle coming Sunday and Monday. Temps will be pushing 60 degrees all the way to the Michigan line on Monday, in spite of clouds arriving later in the day.
No change in the switch in pattern next week. A cold front passes Monday night into Tuesday and will bring a bit of cloud cover. We still don’t think there is much precipitation to be had with this system in the state, although we won’t rule out a few sprinkles Tuesday over extreme northern Indiana. Clouds hold Tuesday. Then we see a steady move down in temps through the end of the week. A system passes by mostly to the south of the state at midweek next week, and our next system hits here next weekend for Sunday the 22nd. We look for the coolest air to come in just ahead of that system. Rains will be in the .15”-.4” range with coverage at 70% of the state.
Following that system, we stay cool for the following week, with temps about 5-7 degrees below normal. The extended models show a massive system for the 27th-28th…but we think that may be overdone. If not…it would produce up to 2 inches of rain with rain coverage over nearly all of the state. Again, we think that system falls apart or at least weakens considerably before it actually arrives…but it is interesting to see models trying to make March go out like a Lion after it already came in like one.