Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/15/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/15/2012 PM Comment


Dow sags into a 63 point lower close
S&P 500 down 8 to 1330 with next support at 1300
Crude trades down to $93.26
Dollar bolts up 66 to 81.27 with an 81.78 yearly high (The best bet in a troubled world)
The Greek tragedy and Spain and Italy close behind continue to weigh on values, especially oil
DAX off .8% watch Wednesday morning first thing
Bernanke warns that US is approaching a fiscal cliff
French President Plane hit by lightening—an omen?

Cattle creep up on cash with June at a $4 discount
Memorial Day meat pricing firms values
Boxed beef was, however, just steady at noon
Outside markets give meats the he be gibes
June hogs are at the highest point since 4/27
Cash call steady to higher
Watch pork cutout Wednesday morning

Grain and soybeans
Short covering closing near their highs in all
Little export activity
South Korea routinely buys 56,000 tons of corn
Corn plantings 87% done and beans 46% with spring wheat 94% complete
Kansas wheat 52% good to excellent down from 60% last week and watch western plains dryness
Watch for stories of woe out of the Ukraine
European rapeseed production at a six year low
Chinese corn plantings seen up 2%
On weakness December support is at $5
Remember short covering is the weakest form of buying
Wheat harvest beginning means hedge pressure


10:58  update


Greek possible exit from EU offsets better German 4Q GDP

US on fiscal cliff?  I hear that kind of talk from credible sources

Bargain hunters rally palm oil which is sensitive to European woes

India grain stock as of 5-1 at 38 MT versus a 4 MT average

Moderate short covering in grains and soybeans


10:29 update

Dow up 18
JP Morgan comes back 2.1%
Builder’s sentiment improves
Short covering in grains and oilseeds
Wheat harvest beginning and so shall hedge pressure
Beef and pork benefit from Memorial Day pricing


German GDP up.5% in 4Q, versus .1% expected and -2% in 3Q
Europe stagnates for the day
S&P 500 support 1340 and then 1300
Dow closes below 12,700 with 12,500 next
Pre open Dow trade was up 75 points—Dow beats quick retreat down 10 at 8:48
DAX up just.2%
Crude little changed at $94.73
Dollar index pushes higher up 22 at 80.83 with years high at 81.78
Gold static at $1560
Euro zone worries just distracted by German GDP

Retailers begin pricing Memorial Day features and choice beef raises $1.93 and select up $2.05
Last weekend clearance helped by weather and next two weeks look ducky
COF Friday
Cattle technical action positive Monday
Cattle slaughter 127,000 up 8000 v last week and hogs down 10,000
Pork cutout $1.44 better with loins up $2.69 and hams + $.69
Some see Chinese hog prices falling 20%

Grain and soybeans
Corn 87% planted as expected and beans 46% also on target both about one month ahead of schedule
Spring wheat 94%
Winter wheat condition 60% good-excellent down from 63%
Brazilian bean harvest done
Brazilian corn estimate 64 MT up from 62 MT
December corn support at $5.00
Watch western wheat area for dryness
22 hour trade begins 5-21 amidst some Ag industry opposition
Export sales Thursday, June crop estimate (Not a survey and none until August) on 6-12 with the quarterly stocks on 6-29
Short covering rallies over night