Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/2/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/2/2012 PM Comment

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Financial

ADP jobs up 120,000 versus 170,000 expected and was the table setter for defensive trade

Dow off 17 late and S&P at 1401

DAX down .8%

13 of 27 EU nations have double digit unemployment

The bankrupt Greek economy has 50% jobless rate among the young

Crude falls to $105

Dollar holds gains following weak data coming out ofEurope

WatchEuropetomorrow morning

 

Livestock

Meat mangled again with cattle off $.95 down to $112.75 on June

June hogs drop $1.65 to $84.20 the lowest in over two years

Boxed beef no help off $.79

Pork cutout not stable enough to support cash

Fund sellers beat up cattle and hogs

Hog slaughter weights 276.1 # versus a 270 # five year average

Features are budget conscious with no cook out offerings

Nebraskacash at $120 off $1-2

 

Grain and soybeans

Day long grain hammer comes down on beans late causing a reversal of 27 cents or down 22 on July

July wheat takes out support at $6.20 ending at $613

July corn rock bottom at the day close down 18 at $6.11 ½ with support from $6.00 to 6.05

Great wheat crop coming in HRW and spring wheat in this country more than offsets dryness concerns inEastern Europe

10 days forecast looks ideal for HRW

Dollar holds rally weighing on exports

Unknown exports of 204,000 tons of beans and 130,000 were not enough to stem the negative tide

Reduced meal movement out ofS Americacould not support the beans either

Argentine and Brazilian corn prospects looking up

Export sales Thursday but big corn business is not likely to be repeated

Volatility goes on and will only be more intense when trading hours are increased in the CME grain and soybeans

 

12:30  update

 

Grains getting pounded corn off 15 and wheat down 19 cents with beans drifting

10 days of good moisture in HRW country

Meal supplies tightening out ofS. America

Ethanol stocks up 12% from last year

Iranbuys 60,000 of Aussie wheat

Lebanonpending on 50,000 tons of milling wheat

Dollar holds rally

 

 

12:12  update

 

Meats sinking hogs off $.95 at new low

Cattle just $.25 lower but lurking near the bottom

July wheat near support at $6.20

HugeKansascrop 54 bus/ v 40 last year

July corn slumps $.8 on profit taking

Beans tread water July holding at $15.06

Dow marking time 50 lower

More soft signs inEuropeas half of EU have double digit unemployment

 

10:10  update

 

Dow off 56 early

Nebraskacash cattle light at $120 off $1-2

Packers hold cash bids

Is pork cutout stable enough to support cash?

Hog cash call lower today

Dollar strong on Euro zone weakness

13 of 27 EU nations have double digit unemployment

Kansaswheat tour yield 53.6 versus 40 last year

204,000 tons of 12-13 beans to unknown

30,000 bean oil toChina11-12

130,000 corn to unknown for 12-13

Gulf corn bids firm on tightness of supply

Financial

Weak ADP jobs report at 119,999 versus 201,000 in March and 170,000 estimated drops Dow 50 points in pre opening trade

Euro zone PMI soft at 45.9 versus 47.7 last month

DAX off .4%, FTSE down .8%

Dollar up 45 ay 79.27

Gold off $6 at $1657

Crude oil $.37 lower at $105.76

Dow Tuesday hit a new four year high at 13,338

 

Livestock

Cash cattle offers at $122-23

Boxed beef steady and will be the key to ultimate cash trade

Smaller show lists

Mildly better margins

Kill normal at 126,000 and hogs 411,000 both about 7000 lower for the week thus far

Pork cutout off $.18 with loin’s down $1.76 and hams up $1.61

Front page features: $1.88 spare ribs, $2.98 round roast and $8.98 walleye fillets

 

Grain and soybeans

Choppy week thus far

CME trading hours in grains to expand to 22 closed only from4-6 PMand open during USDA crop reports, as if it is not wild enough

80 Degree temps the next few days with scattered thunder storms and next week cooler, which is OK.

Last week’s big corn sale 1.56 MT has not been followed up

Export sales Thursday

S American crop losses are mostly in the market

$15 July beans now become a support base

November soybeans above $13 are a good hedging starting point for many analysts