Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/22/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/22/2012 PM Comment


Dow sags near the close was off 25 points
Crude oil $91.61
Gold down $17 at $1573
Dollar index 81.52 up 44 near the 82 resistance level
Europe quiet with no solutions to their multi debt dilemma’s
Existing home sales and retail stores reports were constructive.

Boxed beef little changed at $ 194.51
Cash a few days away form being determined
Holiday covered
June hogs have lost about 300 points since Friday’s high
Cold storage expected at 615 m pounds of pork versus 549 m a year ago

Grain and soybeans
At the conclusion of the day session all markets were being profit taking pounded
July and December, as examples, were below support levels in both as corn condition came out at 77% good to excellent
Spring wheat 74%
Winter wheat has fallen from 72% in Kansas in April to 46%
Dryness remains an issue in the plains and parts of the Midwest
Indiana top soil is 43% dry, but the weather looks wet every few days in the Central Corn Belt and the crop rating is superior
As the dollar approaches an 82 breakout exports are increasingly punished
The densely populated speculative trading environment is prone to such extremes and that is not going get any better.
Don’t try to trade toe to toe with these huge funds
Take advantage of rallies to hopefully get the best average price for your

11:14 update

Home report positive up 3.4%
Dow rallies 66
US retailers have good reports
Ukrainian wheat 14 MT down from 23 MT
Russian spring wheat hurt by dryness
Egypt buys 1.1 MT of local wheat as harvest is delayed by diesel fuel shortages
Boxed beef up $2.08 Monday above $194
Soybean emergence is at 35% versus 13% average
June hogs at $3 premium to cash are vulnerable to sell off

10:49 update

Beans 35% planted and emergence at 5% versus a 13% average
Corn rating 77% good to excellent even better than expected
Warm and dry 6-10 in the plains
Russian wheat off 3 MT and exports may be cut by 14 MT
Heat returning to central Midwest and Indiana top soil is 43% dry



Dow opens off 9 points
DAX up 1.1%
Crude oil down $ .37 at $92.49
Dollar 81.29 up 22 with resistance at 82
Existing home sales expected at 4.6 million
Japan’s bond rating downgraded
Europe marking time ahead of summit meeting
Greece likely to exit the EU in some fashion and that is what the finance ministers are hashing out

Profit taking shaves cattle values
Cash offers hold at $125 in the south and higher north
Memorial Day features covered
Strong dollar inhibits exports
Beef exports off 21% in March when imports were up 26%
Kill 126,000 on par as was hog kill at 418,000
Pork cutout
Up $ .21 with loin’s $3.31 better and hams off $1.66

Grain and soybeans
Corn and spring wheat planted
Corn rated 76% good to excellent and spring wheat 74%
Winter wheat down 2% to 58 g-x and Kansas 46% from 72% in April
Indiana topsoil rated 43% dry so watch it
Rains possible in dry areas of Russia
July corn support at $6.20 and December corn resistance up at $5.70
1 to perhaps 2 million more bean plantings foreseen with report at the end of June
If dollar index were to rise above the 82 breakout exports would be hurt
Corn and wheat off 8 cents in over night trade and beans 3 cents low