Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/23/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/23/2012 PM Comment

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Financial
Low volume rally in stocks led by Apple on the NASDAQ up 2.4% to $570
Beware the over night trade in Europe and don’t be surprised by a bearish start Thursday morning
Major European index closing at 10:30 CDT were over 2% lower today
Crude falls below $90 but recovers a bit to get back over $90
The dollar held over 82 resistances and the euro dropped below 1.26
Rumors of bank runs in Spain and Greece, have occurred before
Greek exit from the EU is dominant theme currently
S&P got back above 1300, but that is not the magic number it was a week ago
Gold fell in a deflationary spiral

Livestock
Few cattle trade at $121 off $2
Boxed beef was up $ .73 at noon
Cold storage was the quite negative with pork in the cooler 20% from last year and beef up 17%–This is testimony to the prevailing poor demand
Hogs also drop in triple digits led by the cold storage report

Grain and soybeans
Mixed trade with old crop corn tightly supplied and up while new crop was steady
Soybeans recovered some but on short covering, as wheat held near its low
There is enough rain in the forecast to keep pressure on the new crop contracts
Pam oil was off 3% due to the European problems and that weighed on the bean oil
China was rumored to be cancelling some beans due to poor crush margins
China’s definition of a contract if different then ours and so they often cut bait
Elevators are perplexed by the uncertainty of settlement prices between the 1:15 and 2:00 CDT closes, as an old cash grain merchandiser I know what a pain in the neck that must be in pricing bids
Loose lips are going to be flapping as regards European rumors, but don’t chase them.
I like baloney sandwiches, but I can’t live on them

 

11:11 update

Euro below 1.26 could enter free fall

Greek exit from EU now actively considered

EU informal meeting not convincing

Germans and French square off over debt dilemma

What will new French leader react and what will be the German response?

Dow off 165

Crude down $1.50

Gold falls $37

Dollar above 82 resistance

The show down may be upon us

 

10:16  update

 

Morgan Stanley gets most of blame for FaceBook flop

H&D in plains 6-10 and watch Midwest

Chinese delaying bean buys until September?

Chinese bean cancellations due to negative crush margins?

Greek leader hints at preparations for leaving the euro zone

E Asia millers buying cheaper corn versus wheat

Facebook volume 102 million shares yesterday that’s 20 times the total NYSE trade in 1966

 

Financial
Dow call 75 lower
EU informal summit begins tonight
France and Germany at loggerheads over debt crisis and Greek exit from EU
Euro index off 2.1% with DAX down 1.8% and FTSE 1.7% lower
April new home sales this morning
Dell falls 13% in Europe on weak earnings
Fraud and disseat issues in face book IPO fiasco
SEC looking at Morgan Stanley role in offering
Dollar 81.71 with resistance at 82
Gold down $15 at $1561
Crude drops to $90.88 off $.97 with support at $90—Demand concerns regarding Global economies

Livestock
Cold storage of frozen stocks up 20% versus a year ago in pork, 17%beef
Volatile markets have dollar risk up or down everyday
Choice- select boxed beef spread at $7.50 is the widest in weeks
Choice has been at about $194
Memorial Day needs covered
Kill 126,000 and 417,000 hogs normal
Pork cutout down $2.09, with loins off $.31 and hams $2.73 lower

Grain and soybeans
Night trade corn 4 higher to steady, July beans down 14 cents and July wheat off 13 cents in continuing spec shake up
The dark clouds over Europe cast a pall on all markets
Great corn condition 77% good top excellent and spring wheat 74%
Bean planting rolling toward conclusion
Winter wheat condition slips to 58% g-x and Kansas is down from 72% to 46%
Watch rains in Russian growth area
Russian by private sources off 3 MT and exports down 14%
Dryness is mentioned in parts of Midwest but forecast calls for a few days of rain in the 6-10 day period
December corn low was $5.20 yesterday
Longer trading hours cause momentum concerns as markets have little break for reconsideration.
Dollar closing in on 82 resistance and is up over 8% over a year ago
Tread lightly in the irrational markets just use as long term gauge
Rumors of Chinese coal and iron ore cancellations due to economic troubles
USDA surveying times of release on reports with new longer trading hours
Elevators perplexed by settlement at 1:15 or 2:00—the exchange seams to have forgotten is prime mission to transfer risk
Early idea on Brazilian beans for 12/13 73.6 MT up from 66 MT