Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/29/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/29/2012 PM Comment


Dow up 125 at close
S&P and NASDAQ also up 1%+
DAX 1.1% better
Europe still under several clouds the worst of which is Spain
Dollar ends unchanged
Gold mildly lower
Crude steady
Consumer confidence 64.9 versus 68.7 last month in a continuing downward spiral
Housing prices a little less bad

Cattle call steady to lower
Boxed beef up $ .75
Watch pork movement in tomorrow’s cutout at judge weekend clearance
Negative margins weigh on hogs
June and July are soft red meat demand periods

Grain and soybeans
Spec selling in corn and wheat
Soybeans were pulled back from early rally
Midwestern rains 70% coverage ½-1/12” pressed corn and beans
Wheat harvest improving as it advances into southern Kansas
Welcome rains in Russia, China and Australia
Brazil has sold 27% of 12/13 bean crop
Ukraine rapeseed crop off 35%
Financial markets a limited influence today
December corn support at $5.00
November bean resistance at $13.20
Weekly export inspections had little impact


12:58 update

Financials rather quiet but the European problems persist with Spain the feature
Weekend rains of ½-1 ½ with 70% coverage in Corn Belt drive corn lower and take beans off early high
Wheat pressured by improved yields out of the S Kansa harvest
Rains in Russia, China and Australia
Meats watch boxed beef trade and pork movement over the holiday weekend


Stocks called mixed with Dow lower and DAX up .8%
Early ticks up 90 on Dow
Housing report today
Consumer confidence expected to be higher in April
Europe no better
Employment report Friday
FOMC 6/19 may be last chance Fed has to ease credit before the election
Spanish stocks dropped 9.8% in April
Greek election 6/17 but leadership expected to remain muddled and ineffective
Chinese stimulus efforts directed at Steel industry
Hybrid Chinese economy makes it hard to read chances of success from simulation
Minimal gains in crude, gold and a slight decline on the dollar index.

June futures cash spread narrowing
$123 a
Tight supply and full slaughter week may firm market
Kill 631,000 versus 641,000
Boxed beef normally softens in June and July
Choice- select spread widens to $9
Pork cutout off $ .23 with loins down $ .59 and hams steady
Slaughter 2,059,000 v 2,042,000
Meat buying goes back to shopping mode

Grain and soybeans
Wheat harvest advancing narrowing spread between wheat and corn
Weekend weather had no surprises and looks normal ahead
Rains reported in Black Sea region and Australia
Watch Corn Belt dry areas but no real concern yet
Chinese corn yields 35% less than ours
Watch $13.20 on November soybeans and $5.00 on December corn
CME considering opening the markets 10 minutes earlier on report days and USDA is said to be looking at issuing reports at mid session. All pending CFTC study
Exports have slipped into the background lately