Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/30/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/30/2012 PM Comment

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Financial

Spanish bank problems highlight troubled day

Ideas of only a modest Chinese stimulus program dampens potential demand

Dow falls 160

DAX off 1.8%

Euro down to 1.236

Crude $87.57 down almost $3

Dollar soars to 83.05

Aussie dollar dives

Gold $1564 is more of a wish list speculation

Spanish 10 year bond 6.7% versus sounder US and German paper at 1.6

US rates at twenty year low

Pending home sales decline

Rough day with more to come

 

Livestock

Cattle beat down $1.60 in August

Boxed beef up $1.24 but advance demand is in doubt as June approaches

Hogs bounce off support to close $.42 higher

Pork cutout up $ .86 with trade moderate

Watch for reduced hog kill ahead

Pork margin still in the red

 

Grain and soybeans

Crop ratings reduced in corn and winter wheat but forecast looks favorable for recovery

Low volume is a sign of depleted risk taking inertia and hat also applies to stocks

Deep dives in financials trump slight crop deterioration

New high on dollar stifles export inquiry

Watch rain and where it occurs this week and next

Russian wheat exports expected to be stable

Current Chinese soybeans stocks adequate for needs

Wheat harvest advances at record pace

Spring wheat 79% good to excellent

 

10:55 update

Dow now down 146 points
DAX off 1.6%
Crude falls $2.38 to $88.38
Dollar reaches 82.79 and euro drops to 1.24
Gold off $16 to $1542
Spanish banks troubles at the core of updates crisis
Defensive meat trades
Dec. corn support at $5.00, July wheat gap extends to $6.00 and July beans support at $13.40

Financial
The pain in Spain falls mainly on the banks
10 year bonds up to 6.7% versus 1.4% in Germany and Italy at 6%
Dow opens off 104
Crude oil below $90 at $89.74 down $1.35
Gold $6 lower at $1550
Euro falls under 1.25 to 1.2427
Dollar climbs to 82 4 up 26
DAX off 1.1%
Chinese stimulus to be much smaller than European efforts

Livestock
Larger show lists in Texas and Kansas but less in Nebraska
Northern premium $1-3
Boxed beef up $1 choice and $2 select
Memorial Day clearance better than exported in beef
Kill 130,000 and 425,000
Pork cutout $.86 higher with loins up $1.89 and hams $1.28
Demand moderate for pork

Grain and soybeans
Outside influence back in drivers seat
Soybeans 89% planted and corn done
Corn crop rating declines to 72% g-x from 77 %
Beans 61% emerged versus a 30% 5 year average
Winter wheat crop ratings slip to 54% g-x from 58%
Winter wheat harvest at 9% complete
Rains in Russia, China and Australia
December corn support at $5.00
Wheat below triple top at $6.55 ½
Chinese bean stocks 6.3 MT up 700,000 so they are currently well covered for supplies
Dollar up to 82.74 and restricts export trade