Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 5/7/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 5/7/2012 PM Comment



Quiet conclusion in the Dow off 13
Crude down just$.7, gold off $8 all day and dollar index holds up 11 ay 79.61
Sell the expectation, shy away from the fact in regards to the European elections, but the uncertainty prevails
Greece votes on bond payments on the 15th and that may be the next big sticking point
Hedge fund follies, as well as crap shooters hunker down defending their long positions


Short covering off the new lows in hogs, but remember short covering is the weakest form of buying
Pork cutouts firm improving margins but will that improve pork demand?
Boxed beef up $.29 is a feeble fundamental
Beef glue story in the background so beware media negative motivation

Grain and soybeans

Corn plantings expected at 67% done and beans up to 22%
Weather perfect for new plantings development
Kansas wheat the best in a decade
S/D Thursday with large corn stocks projected for 12-13 and tightness remains in beans with wheat supplies ample.
Private source sees bean plantings rising 700,000 acres and corn up another 600,000
Old crop corn tightness firms basis


Dow called 35 lower after Socialists win French election anti bail out neo Nazis and socialist do well in Greece
DAX off .4%, Asian stocks fell hard and FTSE dropped 2%
Uncertainty is the enemy of all markets
No fed action expected
Consumer credit report at 2 PM
Earnings winding down
Crude oil off $ .62 at $98.06—there are some real oil bears in the woods so watch
Dollar up 21 at 79.71
S&P and NASDAQ both fell through support Friday and Dow support is down around 12,700 with a 13,028 last Friday

Cattle $119-121
Boxed beef off $.67 choice and &.79 select
Cook out washed out in parts of Midwest
June hogs set a new low
Pork cutout up $.76 with loin’s up $/95 and hams up $ .45
Slaughter 611,000 cattle versus 659,000 last week and hogs 2,092,000 versus 1,990,000
Beef glue story—watch it!

Grain and soybeans
Planting update corn was 53% done last week and soybeans 12%
Weekend rains in Midwest
Kansas wheat looks best in a decade
Early corn in Iowa mostly good to excellent
Outsides hit by European uncertainty as socialists win in France and Greece
Thursday S/D carryovers up maybe over 2 MT in corn, tight in beans about 130 million and 916 million in wheat
Corn basis firms in central Illinois to 60 over July
Huge corn and bean exports last week (3.7 MT of corn and 1.7 MT of soybeans)