Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 6/11/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 6/11/2012 PM Comment

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Financial
Dow nose dives to a 151 point loss from an opening 100 point gain
Crude falls $2.50 on poor demand
European debt crisis tuned up despite throwing money at the crumbling Spanish banking system
Greek elections Sunday hope no hope of a constructive consensus as they do not have a viable economy
Italy will likely furnish the next dismal headline
DAX closing at 10:30 CDT barely hung on to a .2% gain
Dollar moved slightly higher

Livestock
Cattle ease as choice boxed beef is checked resistance at the $198 level
Cattle kill may reach 650,000 this week
Hogs post modest gain on mostly higher pork cuts
Pork is well priced versus beef

Grain and soybeans
Illinois and Iowa crop ratings decline as soil dry’s out
June does not look promising at this point
Private estimates of 14.36 b corn and 3.21 b beans will not be realized under these conditions
Wheat, corn and beans finished up about unchanged
Financial markets offset deteriorating crop conditions
Export business poor in corn and just as expected in wheat and soybean inspections.
June 25th is proposed time for change to a 2 PM close at the CME
Since open outcry only comprise 8% of the trade this is just a recognition of reality
The CFTC must approve such a change
S/D reports are subjective in nature and no survey crop estimate will be out until August
Weather systems have been blowing apart crossing the Midwest

 

11:07 update

Dow off 34 as pointless Greek elections are looming next Sunday
S&P resistance at 1334 with last at 1318
Ranges: July corn $5.60-$6.10, July beans $13.80-14.40-60 and July wheat $6.20 – 6.60
August cattle $118-122 and July hogs $89-94

10:11 update

Dow splits to a 48 point advance and crude oil is up just $.22
Choice beef at level of historical consumer resistance
Cash hogs called steady to better
May Chinese soybean imports a record at 5.28 MT up 16% from a year ago
Watch warm and dry conditions in Russia

 

Financial 

 

Euro zone finance ministers agree to throw $100 b or $125 b euro’s, at the crumbling Spanish banking system

This is a band aid, the afraid of a chain reaction following a failure of Spain

This weeks reports PPI on Wednesday and CPI and jobless claims Thursday

Yet this month we will have the Supreme Court decision on Obama care, FOMC meeting. G20 and European summit

Dow up 100 early

Crude oil $1.06 higher at $85.16

Gold steady at $1593

Dollar index off 31 at 82.19 (range bound)

DAX up 1.6%

Spain just at stop gap and now attention will shift toItaly

 

Livestock

Cash cattle at $122 versus break even at $130

Beef margins called decent

Choice boxes steady last week with select off $3

Kill could rise to 650,000

Pork cutout up $.99 with loin’s $1.74 high, hams $.16 lower and bellies up $3.96

Cheaper pork competes well with beef

 

Grain and soybeans

Night trade up 2 in corn, 10 in beans and 6 cents on wheat

Not much rain in this week’s forecast

Watch the crop deterioration pattern

Temps not searing

Northern China dryness

S/D 20 m bushels cuts in carry out expected

Dollar just spinning in a range means little to export trade

Herky jerky spec trade will continue so watch the patterns on a long term scale