Home Market Market Watch Gary Wilhelmi 6/12/2012 PM Comment

Gary Wilhelmi 6/12/2012 PM Comment

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Grain and soybeans

Funds sell grains and buy beans
S/D report was not dramatic
Conditions off 5-6% in both corn and beans
Forecast looks cooler and maybe wetter
Weather patterns often change with change of seasons which is upon us
No corn and soybean surveys until August
Wheat survey little changed at 2.23 b
Corn exports trimmed 50 m reflecting the current slow pace of business
Dollar remains range bound so is not motivational
Only minor adjustments to S American bean production

Livestock
Cattle offers are at $124 in the south
Boxed beef steady with choice $15 over select unusually wide
Holiday meat features Wednesday but no dramatic alteration is expected
It looks like good eating weather
Watch slaughter pace in cattle (650,000?)
Pork cutout strong but futures sold lower

Financial
Dow up 162 points on the speculation of a further Fed stimulus effort
President of Chicago Fed hints at accommodative policy continuation
Record high interest rates on Italian and Spanish bonds
Spain at 6.7% up from 5.5 a few months ago as their bonds are junk
Boeing up 3.5% on ratings hike
PPI Wednesday and CPI Thursday
FOMC pending and OPEC meetings is in the offing
Crude oil little changed as demand remains stodgy
Gold firms about $15 but that is nothing for gold
Euro 1.25 steady
Greek election Sunday
FOMC meeting pending

 

1:17  update

Funds sell grains

Beans a bit better on old crop carry over

Dow up 81

Crude $ .50 higher

Dollar steady

DAX up .3%

What we are doing is marking time as Europe remains in disarray

OPEC to meet but will not likely be a big market moving event

 

10:44 update

Spanish and Italian bond rates hit new highs and that is a key signal of trouble and the worth of their crumbling societies

Kazakhstangrain export at new record high of 14 MT

Minimal movement on neutral S/D report

Meats Menander with pork cuts firm and beef waiting on show list numbers, boxed trade and slaughter

 

Financial
Italian and Spanish interest rates higher on multiplying uncertainty
European stocks in flux
Euro back down to 1.25
Dollar in range at 82.49
Crude eases more on demand concerns at $82.45 off $ .25
Gold quiet at $1591
Dow called a bit better and opened up 43 points
PPI report and next is CPI
FOMC, Supreme Court Obama care decision, Greek election EU summit all yet this month

Livestock
Cattle offered at $125
Watch show list size, boxed beef and slaughter
Choice beef at $198 at consumer resistance level
Choice-select beef spread out to $14.50
Pork cutout gains $2.59 with loins up $2.87, hams $ .84 and bellies jump $3.41
Watch holiday features tomorrow
Slaughter 130,000 cattle up 7000 from last week and 386,000 hogs

Grain and soybeans
Conditions 66 % good to excellent down from 72% and beans 60% down from 66% and both were as expected
Wheat harvest at 35% with Kansas at 44% done
Spring wheat condition shaved by 3% but still at 75% g-x
Clear skies over the Midwest with moderate temperatures
If forecast comes true crop conditions will erode again next week
S/D reports are subjective projections and no survey estimate will ne out on beans and corn until August
Over 50% of corn and soybean are in goods to excellent condition
Winter production survey shows crop off 1%
Watch the market action for a true reaction to the report as so many brokers just talk out of their position
Corn exports off 50 million was not a surprise
Neutral to slightly negative in corn and bean s and mildly favorable wheat