A large rain event moves over the state to start the weekend, with rain spreading from south to north on Saturday, continuing Saturday night and through the first part of Sunday. Rain totals can be from 1-3 inches form this event alone, leading to a significant delay in harvest. We can see some clearing Sunday afternoon. We should note that temps really do not fall off that hard behind this system.
Mostly sunny and dry for Monday. But, clouds begin to build on Tuesday ahead of our next system for midweek. This system has a much more dramatic drop in temps. In fact, a large part of the plains and western Corn Belt will see some snow next week. Here, we see a chance of rain as soon as Tuesday night, scattered showers Wednesday, and then rain/thunderstorms Thursday that may end as wet snow overnight Thursday night or early Friday morning. Temps will be dropping significantly by Friday and next weekend. Combined liquid from that midweek forward system will be from .5”-1.5” over 100% of the state. With the cold air behind it, we will not dry down all that fast. Map shows 10-day rain potential…and we think this could be on the low end.
We do see dry days to finish the 10 day period Saturday through Monday (4th). Temps will be cool.
Outside of a few scattered showers on the 6th, the rest of the 11-16 day forecast window will be partly to mostly sunny, and we actually turn mild.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Models continue to point toward a slightly more active week 3 and week 4 period. The main catalyst will likely be moisture moving up from the south. However, we think models are reading too much into the tropical moisture triggering these south rains early in the forecast period (this week/next), and therefore are not handling the rain potential longer term in the right manner. We think we see 1-2 rain chances on smaller scales through the week 3 and week 4 period…so there will be some harvest windows to work around…but it will not be as “wide open” as perhaps we have gotten used to lately. Temps do recover and go close to normal through the end of November.
Precipitation, week ending November 16 (green: above normal, brown: below)
Precipitation, Week ending November 23 (green: above normal, brown: below)