Dry weather continues through the weekend and the first part of next week. Temperatures will be slowly trying to moderate. We have no new precipitation to speak of until we get to next Wednesday. As temperatures warm, sunshine will become more of a feature.
There is a minor disturbance that drifts across the central Corn Belt this weekend that looks threatening into IL on Sunday, but we think the moisture falls apart, and we are left with mainly clouds trying to move across Indiana on Monday. While we won’t rule out a flurry or two early Monday morning, there really is no moisture to truly work with.
Temperatures are expected to warm substantially at midweek next week, on strong south flow. If we have a chance of being above normal on our temps at all, next Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday will be the period to watch. This will be just ahead of our next well-organized weather system. We don’t expect “crazy” warmth, but it will feel substantial to those of us who have this past week still fresh on our minds.
Clouds increase next Thursday, with rains developing for the second half of the day. This moisture continues into the overnight, ending early Friday. With the previously alluded to warm up, we should see all rain, with totals of .1”-.75” and 100% coverage. We clear out quickly behind the front, allowing partly sunny skies to emerge for the balance of Friday.
Next Saturday and Sunday we see partly to mostly sunny skies over northern areas, but another wave of moisture is set to come east and northeast out of the Mississippi River Valley. Because of this, we look for more clouds over southern Indiana, particularly late Saturday through Sunday, and we will have to keep a chance of showers in from US 50 southward. Moisture totals would be generally less than .25”, but we can’t say dryness is likely either. The map below shows 10 day combined moisture potential, in liquid equivalent.
Dry to start the week of Thanksgiving, with clouds and some sun for Monday the 25th. Tuesday clouds dominate and we can’t rule out minor moisture…showers of rain or wet snow, but liquid equivalent totals will be .2” or less. Dry for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, although clouds will be starting to increase on thanksgiving. That leads to a chance of rain showers overnight Thanksgiving night into early Friday morning (29th). Moisture totals there are again light, .3” or less. Dry to finish the extended period (and month) with a mix of clouds and sun for the balance of Friday the 29th and Saturday the 30th.
Weeks 3 & 4:
Drier pattern for week 3, then we get active for week 4. The temperature pattern that begins in the 11-16 day pattern looks to continue and build through weeks 3 and 4, with near to slightly above normal temps in week 3, and then above normal temps possible in week 4. Therefore, we continue to believe that the early season cold snap we just experienced is likely to not repeat for several weeks.
Precipitation, week ending December 7 (green: above normal, brown: below)
Precipitation, Week ending December 14 (green: above normal, brown: below)