Tuesday is the day for the annual meeting of Indiana Pork, and no doubt hog supplies will be among the issues they discuss. Before the end of 2016, hog production will be at or approaching packer capacity levels. EMI Analytics vice president of pork analytics Dr. Steve Meyer expects hog supplies to become an issue, “especially in the 4th quarter. The first 3 quarters are going to look very much like last year and I don’t think those were supply problems at all. The 4th quarter could be. We’re going to run slaughter up in the 2 ½ million heads several weeks and that’s right at our capacity for handling those pigs. We think that weights could be a percent higher by the 4th quarter so we think that supplies are going to be pretty burdensome by the time we get to the 4th quarter and that’s where our concern is that these 60-65 dollar futures might turn out to be pretty good.”
Feed prices remain low, which will continue to influence the size of the U.S. swine herd.
“Our model says you made about $3 a head on the average producer. The best would have been 10-13 dollars a head probably, but those prices aren’t very good relative to where we were a year and a half ago. But relative to a kind of historical level and certainly relative to cost they’re not too bad. Our model has $5.50 per head profit in it for 2016 right now given current futures prices, so that’s not a situation that would stop expansion or drive contraction in the business at all. Until we get a negative number there that’s not going to happen.”
Compared to two years ago, there are very few PEDv outbreaks being reported. The situation has improved to the point Meyer is no longer making any adjustments to his supply projections due to PEDv losses.
For more information, producers can contact the Pork Checkoff Service Center. Go to www.Pork.org or call 800-456-PORK.
The keynote speaker for Indiana Pork is Dr. Natalie Baker, D.V.M., with Warrick Veterinary Clinic of Boonville, IN. Baker specializes in swine health in her family-owned veterinary clinic. She will speak on the Veterinary Feed Directive rule and changes to how producers utilize antibiotics in their herds.
“We know that animal health is an important topic to our producers. We are pleased to have Dr. Baker join us at our annual meeting to educate our members on how antibiotic use is changing,” said Josh Trenary, executive director of Indiana Pork.