Cold air is coming…and it will be impressive to watch over the coming days. Models continue to amp up the pattern change for eastern locations short term (today through the weekend) and over a large part of the country from this weekend through next week. Temperatures today will be much lower than yesterday. A strong north wind developed last evening behind a cold front, and was actually able to trigger some lake effect snows over extreme northern Indiana. Other than that, there is really not much precipitation to talk about this morning. However, look for 3 more waves of arctic air to blast in here between now and midweek next week. The weekend event might actually be the most significant, with regard to temperatures. That cold blast will be accompanied by wind, and it may produce some 20-30 below wind chills for Sunday. Bundle up.
Our next significant threat of precipitation is still on the way for late Monday through Tuesday. The latest model runs have shifted the best precipitation farther south. The freezing line looks to go all the way into southern KY and even western TN…so we look for most of the precipitation to be snow. If the current model solutions verify…we have a real need to be concerned for southwest parts of the state. Models are showing up to 7 tenths of moisture potential there, and if it is all snow…that would be significant. In general, most of the rest of the state is at a quarter inch or less of liquid potential. This event is way to far out to throw snow amounts on at this time…we will do that later Friday. But…at this point, we need to be just a little concerned about the potential for nasty weather over the southern third of the state.
Strong arctic high pressure settles in for the rest of the week. This will be a major cold push. We see the freezing line going all the way into central FL. So, look for temps here to be well below normal. In fact, Thursday morning, there is the potential for the entire state to be below ZERO! However, sun should be a good part of the forecast from Wednesday through Friday of next week, which will mitigate the cold by perhaps just a little bit.
Another system may try to develop for next weekend…the 21sst into the 22nd. Not all models are in agreement on this system…but if we do see the western ridge flatten out…it gives this more active pattern solution more credibility. WE like snows to develop late Saturday through Sunday. Liquid equivalents will be in the .1”-.3” range, so it will not be a huge event, at least as it stands right now. The extended period should promote another strong system around the 24th, and perhaps one the 27th…so the active trend in our forecast continues to build. The wave of low pressure that passes over the region next Monday night into Tuesday.
Dry in Argentina from now through early next week…likely Monday. Our front for next week looks slightly more impressive now, and we will bump rain totals to .33”-1” from late Tuesday through Thursday for all corn areas in Argentina with about 80%. Strong high pressure settles in after that front next week and holds through the 10 day period. Temps will move to below normal levels with that high and strong southerly winds along its leading edge. But…even below normal, temps are not problematic to this point. Just a couple of cooler summer nights.
There has not been any significant movement of the band of heaviest rains over Brazil on the latest model runs. We still see 10 day rain potential of 5” or more from Parana across through the southern half to third of Matto Grosso do Sul and into Paraguay. Far southern parts of Rio Grande do Sul will miss out on the rains, though, with only a quarter to half inch potential in the same 10 day period. Bahia corn areas, although not large in numbers, will likely trend drier too…as the latest models keep significant rains out of that state and out of eastern Minas Gerais.
Much colder air in the US Corn Belt for next week, and models are even trending colder. Precipitation is minor through the weekend, but we could be looking at an OH Valley snow event for Monday into Tuesday of next week. Clipper systems try and take over as we finish out the month, but a strong SW US system still can work through around the 22nd-24th.
New model looks show half to 3” rain potential for the coming 10 day period combined over all key soybean areas, including western Minas Gerais, southwest Bahia and most of Goias. We are seeing more off shoot precipitation from the stalled front to the south working in over soy areas. We are also seeing some heavier rains on a local scale working into central and western Matto Grosso in the next 10 days. But, the model that is showing these likely is just a little bit over done there, unless the front does actually move more to the north in the 6-10 day period. Temps will transition to slightly below normal over the western half of the soy belt due to the moisture in the next 10 days, but will stay normal to above in the east.
Much colder air is on the way starting this weekend, but the coldest air will be in for next week. The difference between warm and cold may set up parts of the southern HRW belt for some strong to severe weather next Tuesday, but there will have to be some moisture present to get something going…and right now moisture is lacking. In any case, below zero temps will be in for midweek next week over parts of HRW areas, and single digits to teens elsewhere. While this may or may not trigger actual winterkill…it will most certainly trigger talk of winter kill in the coming days. Most of the region misses out on significant precipitation over the coming 10 day peri8od too…which will further fuel winter kill talk (no snow cover, and a crop that is a little vulnerable because it has been dry in recent weeks). We still look for an uptick in precipitation with some half to 1 inch potential for the 22nd-25th.
SRW areas get very cold in the week to 10 day period ahead. However, we should end up with at least some, or maybe a lot of snow cover on wheat fields before the worst cold hits. Northern areas have the blanket already; southern areas may pick it up Monday into Tuesday as a system moves through the OH valley. Temps at midweek next week will be below zeros in most wheat areas along and north of the OH River…and in the teens down into the Deep South.
Russian and FSU wheat areas still see very little precipitation in the next 10 days….although maps look a little better this morning. That is due to a late period front that moves through that has better coverage over all areas. This should bring up to a quarter inch of rain into the central region of Russia and the Volga region as well. Kazakhstan could see from half to three quarter inch potential. Ukraine still is mostly missed. Temps look to stay warmer than normal, as cold air stays holed up well to the north. Every time a model tries to advance a solution to bring that cold air south…it runs into serious resistance.
OTHER AREAS OF NOTE:
Keep an eye on Florida Citrus areas next week. By next Thursday morning, we could see temps bottoming at 30 degrees all the way down to central peninsula areas. With citrus ripening at in waves at any point during winter (and spring/fall for that matter), this can be a story if the cold air continues to deepen and hold to this magnitude.
Big drop in temps coming for beef cattle production areas this weekend and next week. Perhaps some strong to severe weather from the temp change…but not overly likely. Dairy areas in the upper Midwest see a train of successively colder pushes through the rest of this week and next. Next week, below zero temps will be likely on multiple occasions.
Colder temps mean higher energy costs in the next week to two weeks. The potential for biggest snow problems will be in the OH Valley early next week.