Weather definitely has been top of mind over the past couple of days. The weekend started with a lake effect blizzard over a few counties in northern Indiana, while most of the rest of the state had no clue anything was going on. Then, late yesterday a monster storm started its move across the MO valley and pushed into southern Indiana overnight. And this is just the beginning of what could be a wild week. We see our next arctic blast hitting at midweek, and this coming weekend could feature yet another strong storm complex. Let’s break it down.
First off, today, we look for our major winter storm to pass by on a track south of the OH River. See the maps above. However, there is plentiful moisture with is storm, enough to bring 1-3 inches in to areas from I-70 southward, and some -5 inch totals as we get into the southern tier counties, particularly in SW Indiana. Moisture equivalent totals will be in the quarter to half inch range…while farther south into KY we will hear reports of 8-12 inches or more…that is where the real moisture is at. North of I-70, we expect only some light snow and flurries, more from lake enhanced clouds than anything else. Travel and outdoor activities could be tough in the south today.
Colder air blasts in behind this system for tomorrow Wednesday and Thursday. We look for the coldest air to be in for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, when we could see temps below zero all the way into central Indiana, and single digits or even below zero all the way down to the OH River. This will likely be the coldest air of the season.
Another system works out of the south and southwest through the weekend. This low right now is tracking to bring the heaviest moisture and snows over central and southern Indiana, but the entire state will get some snow, and if the low tracks farther north, there could be better snows. The system comes in two waves…the first will have mostly rain over the southern half of the state, with a rain/snow mix or all wet snow over the northern half of the state. This happens on Sunday. Then, from Sunday night through Monday we see more moisture with the arrival of colder air, and we can see moderate to heavy snows state wide…again with the best currently being shown over the southern part of the state. There is plenty of time for this track to modify, and we will watch for a more northern solution.
On the heels of that system, yet another arctic blast shoots in and will take temps well below zero again. This pattern shows no sign of relenting.
The extended period shows cold air holding through the end of the month, then another system around March 2nd brings warmer air first, followed by cold again. Moisture in that system could be up to 1 inch, if the current solution holds (we suspect half inch liquid totals will be more accurate)
Markets are closed today, so there really will be no major impact from international weather on markets today. We will look in-depth at international weather again tomorrow, as the markets open back up. Impact today would be more on energy markets from the current cold and snow than on anything else. Here is a run down of last Friday’s international thoughts. A quick glance at models in passing showed nothing really standing out as being exceptionally different this morning. We do have a new update on Florida this morning…
Remaining dry in Argentina from now through at least Monday of next week. After raising rain totals yesterday, we will leave our forecast alone today for the front for next week: .33”-1” rains from late Tuesday through Thursday with 80% coverage. Strong high pressure pushes in after that front next week and holds through the rest of 10 day period. Models continue to hint at temps being below normal by a bit with that strong high in control, perhaps up to 10 degrees below normal.
No change in the potential for heavy rains over southern Brazil corn areas. A band of 5” or higher rain amounts remains in the same area, from Parana across southern Matto Grosso do Sul, and into Paraguay. Northern corn areas will miss out on the heavy action, but still can pick up half to 2 inches in the next 10 days. Extreme southern Brazil will miss out on rains as well, with Rio Grande do Sul under half an inch for the coming 10 day period.
While cold air is becoming old news, models are promoting slightly better chances of precipitation in the coming 10 days. Initially the precipitation will initiate in east TX and the lower delta, but farther out in the period we see this action coming out of the 4 corners area with the potential to be more moisture laden. Example would be a system for next weekend (21-22nd)…where moisture from half to 1 inch would be possible over a large part of the Corn Belt, some rain, some snow. Later in the month, we expect more snows and at least 2 more significant systems to cross the region.
No reason to back away from moisture on the models at this time. Model runs continue to pump out half to 3” rain potential over soybean areas of Brazil through the 22nd. Heavy rains will stay just south, but will have to be watched for any inkling of a move into more solid bean areas.
Cold air continues to advance in over HRW areas late this weekend and next week. There will be little to no snow cover for HRW areas as the coldest air arrives. WE still see potential for temps to be well below normal, and potentially below zero. The American model did flip flop late yesterday and try to warm temps late next week, but we are not in agreement there. Precipitation chances are greater in the 8-16 day period, and are nearly non existent in the next 8 days outside of east TX and extreme eastern OK.
SRW areas show no changes in the forecast pattern. Snows will be significant over northern half of the region late in the 10 day period and respectable in the southern half of the region next week. We will see some below zero temps down to at least US 24 this weekend and next week. Winter kill may get some headlines.
Russian and FSU wheat areas remain dry the next 10 days
OTHER AREAS OF NOTE:
Latest models do dip temperatures just a bit farther south in Florida for Friday morning. We are seeing some temps very close to freezing down to near Tampa. Right now, below freezing temps are not expected…but this will be a cold enough push that there should be some fairly nervous citrus guys this week, getting ready to turn on sprinklers and heaters if they have them.
Big drop in temps coming for beef cattle production areas this weekend and next week. Perhaps some strong to severe weather from the temp change…but not overly likely. Dairy areas in the upper Midwest see a train of successively colder pushes through the rest of this week and next. Next week, below zero temps will be likely on multiple occasions.
Colder temps mean higher energy costs in the next week to two weeks. The potential for biggest snow problems will be in the OH Valley early next week.