A fairly benign finish to the work week is underway with very little significant precipitation through early Saturday. However, the pattern has not really changed from what we wrote 24 hours ago…we will see more blasts of arctic air, and a weekend weather system that looks spectacular.
Arctic high pressure moves in over the state today and tomorrow, bringing in our next blast of arctic air. Temps the next couple of nights will be as cold or colder than what we saw come in over the weekend. We do see a strong northerly fetch come down the great lakes, and although we do not see a massive amount of available moisture, with the winds and the cold air, don’t rule out some snow flakes over parts of the state tomorrow. However, this is mostly a cold air story over the next few days.
Our next big-time precipitation maker is still on track for the weekend. As we brought up yesterday, we have/had a concern about tracking the low with this system farther north. The latest European model has done that. This by no means is locked in… and in fact we expect a move of the low back south in subsequent runs…but this also means we are definitely in the line of fire from later Saturday through Sunday. We may see a bit of a warmer air push ahead of the system, so we may have our first wave come as rain or rain mixing with snow, but the system is designed to have a batch of moderate to heavy snow with it as well. Right now, we see total moisture potential from the storm at half to 1 inch combined…and it could lead to decent or even heavy snow accumulations across the heart of the state as well. We will wait to put out our official snow totals forecast until late Thursday or Friday, but we are posting some maps here of what some of the computers are saying. It should be a wild ride.
Following that system, another cold blast hits. Temps below normal to start next week, and those cold temps may persist all week as arctic high pressure settles in over IN and OH for several days. However, high pressure also means we should be mostly dry though the week next week.
The extended period has a strong low pushing out of the central plains over the Corn Belt for the 28th and 1st which can bring rain and snow to the region. Liquid equivalents look to be in the third to three quarters of an inch range. Then, the first couple of days of march bringing a slight warm up…just enough to play with us…followed by a massive push of polar air again. We also would look for a significant system to come out of the southern plains on the edge of that cold air for the 4th-5th as well.
A cold front moving across Argentina in the next couple of days looks much stronger and should bring excellent rains to all corn growing regions. We see this front kicking off later this afternoon and going through Thursday morning. Rain totals represented by the map at right are in the half to 2” range with coverage at nearly 95% of argentine corn region. High pressure settles in for the end of the week through Tuesday of next week. Another front comes together bringing up to 1 inch of rain for next Wednesday and Thursday. Temps will be cooler than normal under the high pressure dome to this weekend and early next week, and should promote excellent growing conditions.
Plenty of moisture in over Brazil for this week and next. This may be looked at as a possible hindrance to second crop corn planting, which stood at only 13% done last week. Rains the rest of this week and through next Thursday can be range from an inch on the low end up to 5 or 6 inches. The heaviest rains are shifting inland this week and next over Matto Grosso do Sul.
US Corn Belt locations remain cold through the end of the month and the active precipitation pattern continues as well. However, we are spacing out the precipitation hits just a bit, with 5-6 days in between what just hit and our next event (this weekend). The hits come a little faster late next week into early March. Right now, we see any warmth the models try and build in over the region as just a head fake, with overall below normal temps holding into early March.
Soybean areas may run into some harvest delays over the next 10 days, as nearly daily moisture hits over the soybean belt. This also will affect 2nd crop corn planting (see above). Rain totals will be up to 5 inches, and may exceed that over the western half of Matto Grosso do Sul. However, we will point out that this pattern is really not too different from normal…as the rains usually make life a little interesting around soy harvest time. So…the affect of the rain and the coverage areas remain to be seen. We at least need to expect some talk of delays.
Overall temps in HRW areas will be below normal. However, western parts of the central plains will see a bump in temps for wed-Friday of this week. Then, several more pushes of cold air come. Precipitation was nice over parts of KS and OK yesterday. The aforementioned warming may allow some of that moisture to be used a bit sooner. However, in general, we see our next precipitation maker holding off until late this week, and even then missing most of HRW country. Going forward, the moisture looks the best
All SRW areas now have some snow cover, thanks to the Sunday night and Monday snow event over areas from I-70 southward. This will be nice as well below normal temps will dominate discussions through next week. Moderate to heavy rains/snows are likely again this weekend, and toward the end of next week.
Draw a line from the north short of the Black Sea across into central Kazakhstan. South of that line, we can see some moisture, mostly from half an inch up to 1.25” over the next 10 days combined. North of that line…a few hundredths if you are lucky. Then better moisture happens farther north…outside of the key grain producing regions. This leaves a big dry hole over a large part of production acreage. Most of this dry area will be below normal on temps through this week, but transitions to above normal levels by the middle of next week.
OTHER AREAS OF NOTE:
Not much to say here other than to point to the latest map for temps early Friday morning…morning lows still pushing toward freezing down to Tampa…but not quite there yet.
Colder than normal temps, but otherwise, not a lot of major news making weather items for Cattle.
Snow over the OH valley will provide for some transportation issues the next day or two. If the major system hits the eastern Corn Belt as advertized this weekend, we can say ditto for early next week over most of IN and OH.