If you have been secretly (or even not so secretly) hoping, wishing I would be wrong about the weekend potential for major snow…well, you might just have caught a pretty big break. In the past 24 hours, models have really backed off of the moisture availability in this storm. The low is still tracking across the region. There is still a good chance of moisture, both rain and snow. However, whereas 2-3 days ago we were saying there could be moisture potential of an inch or more of liquid…now models have cut that moisture off quite a bit…and we are looking at .2” to at most .4” statewide. That is a big reduction in moisture. Now…there still is time for this to change, and we will watch the latest data come in today, so stay tuned. But, for right now, We like mostly rain south of I-70, ending as an inch or two of snow, and 1-4 inches of snow from central IN up through the US 30 corridor. North and west of there, only minimal, minor snows. Updates will follow.
No matter if we get more or less rain and snow than I just outlined, there will be another major cold blast coming in behind this system. Temps will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday, moderating Wednesday, and then very cold again Thursday into Friday. Temps will be on par with what we have seen this week, but, since normals are slightly higher next week over this week, relatively speaking we will be a bit colder next week than currently.
A quick moving clipper system moves through at midweek on Wednesday and may bring some light snows to northern Indiana, but in general will not be a big deal.
A strong system moves out of the central plains next weekend. Right now, models continue to keep the bulk of this system well south of the state. But, we will monitor it for a slow rise north, as we think this could have potential to bring big rains or snows into the state to start off March. We don’t trust the full southern track at this time.
The extended period continues to show a couple more systems for the first week of March. A system on the 2nd looks promising for up to half an inch of liquid equivalent, a clipper on the 4th may give minor snows, and then a strong low for the 6th-7th has plenty of moisture (over an inch) but also may bring warm enough air to produce rains. Temps will moderate toward the middle of March, and we continue to look for March overall to be normal to above normal on temps, giving a head fake ahead of a cold April.
Models continue to show cooler than normal temps with two strong high pressure domes over corn areas, one right now through next Tuesday, and one from late next Friday through early March. Excellent precipitation comes out of a storm system for midweek next week. We remain optimistic for 1-3” rain totals with 90% coverage.
Models are in slight disagreement as to the scope moisture in the next two weeks over Brazil corn areas. The GFS is trending toward wetter weather over the whole of Brazil, while the European continues with its move toward more scattered action. The heaviest rains to seem to be subsiding a bit as time moves forward on these models…so we look for better drying windows between showers and storms in the weeks ahead.
The storm complex headed to the Corn Belt this weekend may have more of an impact on areas along and south of I-70. Models have reduced moisture availability dramatically over the past 24 hours. However, we can still see up to half an inch of liquid equivalent Saturday and Sunday, and action may begin sooner back farther west. Cold air next week nearly equals this week across the Corn Belt. A strong system for next weekend right now still wants to stay south, but we see 3 systems in early march, the 2nd, the 4th and the 6th-7th that all could bring combined liquid totals over 1 inch. In fact, that late system for the 6th and 7th may bring plenty of water, if temps stay as advertised right now.
Soybean harvest in brazil will have to continue to dodge showers and storms, but action still looks a little more hit and miss over the days ahead. 10 day maps look wet, but we also think the european is slightly overdone for the entire 10 day period at this point.
HRW areas may pick up some moisture on the order of .2:-.33” this weekend. Most will be in the form of snow over KS, rain down in OK. Again, the amounts are not spectacular. Next week is very cold again. Next weekends storm system could be very strong for the 28th and 1st…with the European model projecting huge snow totals. However, we are taking a more conservative approach, looking for some rain and snow, and right now liquid equivalents at a half inch or so. However, if models continue to strengthen or keep the strength up on this event, we will have to raise liquid totals. Moderating temps as we kick off March, but they likely will not equal the warmth of a few weeks ago.
SRW areas push wake up to record cold again this morning, but temps will ease some tomorrow. A storng storm complex can bring over an inch or rain to areas south of the OH river. But, farther north, mosture is a little more sketchy. Models actually have backed off the mosture some. We still expect some snow from eastern IL acros to NW OH…but nothing earthshatterning, at least at this point in time. Bitter cold (perhaps record cold) again next week in two waves. A system for the 28th and the 1st rips across the deep south, but right now is not projected to move north of the OH River, although we have a concern that it may trend that way eventually.
No change in the short term forecast for FSU and Russian wheat areas. The extended period shows fronts holding together a little better as they exit eastern Europe, but so far, we are not seeing any major increases in precipitation. Actually, it’s more just a few more smallish chances for rain in the extended period. Temps go above normal next week.