The last week of February will end up looking like the previous week…very cold. In fact, we see cold air holding on in general for another 2 weeks before a more moderate temperatures pattern tries to develop as we move toward mid march.
The weekend snow event worked out mostly as anticipated, as 3-6 inches verified in most locations. Now, once you get to near US-30 and north, we were under that 3 inch mark pretty quickly, and even a few miles south of 30, snow totals were a little underwhelming. But, by US 24, we had the lower end of that range coming on line. Going forward, we look for very little new precipitation for the work week this week. Cold air will have 2 pushes, though. The first will be for today and tomorrow, then another cold blast for Thursday and Friday. Temps will be well below normal, and at least this morning and tomorrow morning will have a good chance of starting below zero.
This coming weekend, a large scale system will move through the state. This system will have plenty of moisture. But, we do look for temps to expand warmer through Saturday and Sunday, enough to make all precipitation be rain. We could see 2 day rain totals from half to 1.25”. The ground will still be frozen and will have good snow cover…so with this rain coming fairly fast…we will be looking for some minor flooding issues and ponding to develop. It will not be a big deal…but this is a fairly significant rain event coming our way.
Cold air pushes in behind, and we will start off next week below normal once again. However, by midweek, we will be pushing closer to normal. The extended period shows a couple more rain systems trying to come in toward the middle and end of next week. We have a concern that colder air may win out for the first at midweek and push the midweek system farther south, making it a TN valley and Deep South event. But, from the 5th-7th, we can see a strong system come through in two waves. The first may be snow, and the second rain going to snow. Either way, there looks to be plenty of moisture in the extended period.
Argentina wraps up one cool push as strong high pressure moves slowly away today through tomorrow. We still have a front that will work through for Wednesday-Thursday and perhaps linger into early Friday. However, the best precipitation sets up farther west and then moves north-northeast…meaning that parts of southern Cordoba and LaPampa, along with a large part of Buenos Aires province may get missed with significant moisture. We still may see scattered action in those areas, but mostly under a quarter to half inch. The rest of the Corn Belt gets at least 1-2 inches, perhaps more. A very strong, cool high pressure dome follows that system in for the rest of the 10 day period. We will see temperatures well below normal, but still in a favorable range for crop development. From early next week through late week we only expect scattered showers with coverage under 20%.
Brazil full season corn areas will be mostly drier this week with action limited to hit and miss showers through Friday. The exception will be RGDS, where we will see that northern Argentina moisture come in full force late this week into the weekend. WE can see 2-3 inches of rain in Rio Grande do Sul in that period. Next week, action fills in a bit more over brazil, brining 10 day totals in brazil corn country to around half to 2.5”. But, we must stress that moisture in this pattern, outside of RGDS, is not frontal based, and there will be significant windows of opportunity for Safrina corn planting (after beans) in the central-north. A 6 day precipitation map (through this Friday) sits just below, in the Brazil soybean section.
The US Corn Belt looks to turn out relatively calm this week, although we will continue to see the remains of a plains winter storm kicking out into the southern part of the Corn Belt through the day today. In general, though, the Corn Belt will be dry and very cold through the week. Heavy rains move over the entire Corn Belt this weekend. There will be some model arguments over the NW side of the system putting down potentially heavy snow from NW MO up through IA, southern MN and into WI. But, there is a large push of warm air coming as well as the system lifts northeast. IL/IN/OH may be looking at all rain, on the order of half to 2 inches. This is the early stages of looking at this storm, and much can change…but right now, it looks very interesting. Cold air dives in for most of 1 more week after that system.
Moisture this week looks much more hit and miss across soybean areas. In fact, we may see under an inch of mositure combined through Friday over many soybean areas and there will be windows of opportunity for harvest to continue. We did see some pictures of too much water over the weekend, but generally, they were more urban pictures than harvest pictures. Still, a week of significantly less moisture can be viewed only as helpful. Next week action picks up a little bit more…but after this week, we are also looking to be outside the window for corn planting after beans…so if there was a week to be drier…this is the one they would want. A 10 day precipitation map for brazil sits just above, in the Brazil corn section.
Snow managed to fall over a large part of HRW areas this weekend into this morning. Going forward, it will be colder than normal with two arctic blasts this week, and then next week we start to see temperature moderation.
SRW areas saw more mosituer over the region through the weekend. Temps this week will be well below normal, but we see no significant moisture until this weekend. Now, the weekend push will bring rain to most SRW areas, and the rains will be significant in southern IL, down the MS valley and through the OH valley. We can see 1-2 inches of rain there. Farther north, whikle westill see mostly rain, amounts will be closer to half-1” totals. Temps make another cold push next week, but will then start to moderate toward the end fo the week. The extended peirod has plentiful moisture for SRW aresa in the 11-16 day period.
No better than quarter inch rains over most of the FSU and Russian grain areas in the next 10 days. Kazakhstan could go through the period completely dry. Temperatures go much above normal this week and stay there next week. No change in the short term forecast for FSU and Russian wheat areas. The extended period shows fronts holding together a little better as they exit eastern Europe, but so far, we are not seeing any major increases in precipitation. Actually, it’s more just a few more smallish chances for rain in the extended period. Temps go above normal next week.
Beef cattle production areas and feedlot areas will not be liking the start to this week. Moderate to heavy snows are winding down across the western high plains this morning, but winds stay up through today and tomorrow. Blowing snow will be a problem. Temps moderate some as the week wears on, but look for well below normal temps through Friday. Warming temps this weekend will be interrupted by a cold push to start next week, but then warming accelerates next week. Moisture equivalents of the snows this weekend were not huge (mostly under half an inch), so even if we see rapid snow melt. Mud should be mostly limited to a couple of day’s worth of nuisance.
Other than bitter cold still this week, nothing stands out as being too troublesome for hog areas over the next 10 days. We could be seeing a lot of water around after this coming weekend, but it should not have too much impact on hog production.