Focus is shifting away from the cold (after all, it’s been cold for a while…so we are kinda used to it, right?) and more toward some interesting weather that kicks off this weekend. However we do want to point out that we do expect colder temps today and tomorrow than what we saw yesterday, as yet another cold front pushed through yesterday.
Fast forward to this weekend. We see plenty of moisture coming out of the plains as we go through the weekend. 24 hours ago we brought up the idea that the strong system was wanting to come out in two pieces, and we wanted at least one more confirming model run to really drive that home. Well, we got it. And our other concern was that with two pieces, we thought the ability of piece number to produce all rain or mostly rain was suspect. We thought that if this event came in two waves, there would be a higher likelihood of the second wave brining snow. Models have come around to our way of thinking there now too. And, we are seeing model agreement between the GFS and the European model…so confidence is building that we could be in for a pretty fun ride across the state from Saturday night through next Wednesday.
Here is how it breaks down. Snow moves into the state overnight Saturday night through Sunday. We will see accumulating snows, and available moisture will be upwards of half an inch in spots. The best snows will be from just south of I-70 up to US 30, and US 24 may be in the area of some of the best accumulations. See Maps above. Cold air comes in behind that first wave for Monday and early Tuesday.
Later Tuesday, a second wave starts to push in. the freezing line will drape across southern Indiana, meaning rain can move in up to at least US50…but farther north, we can see another batch of good snows with moisture equivalents up to half an inch again. Winds do not look to be spectacular. But…we have to point out that there is plenty of time for this system to evolve further. We really like the timing, duration, track and precipitation type of the weekend system, but are still open to changes with action next Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, the snow map at right is just one model’s interpretation…these are not official snow forecast numbers from me just yet.
Behind that second wave, another cold push is on, with temps holding below normal. Strong high pressure finishes the week and backs up the cold push. A couple of clipper systems move through the great lakes next weekend, but our next good front arrives for the 10th, bringing precipitation totals up to half an inch. Right now, models suggest about 2-3 days of milder air as that system comes in, but behind it, a reality smack down with colder air and some snow for the 12th-13th. Overall, it looks like we may see normal to above normal temps for 3-4 days out of the first 15 days of march…definitely enough to paint March as below normal, at least for now.
Rains today and tomorrow morning will combine with action from later yesterday and total in the half to 2 inch range, with coverage at 80%. A nice, cooler than normal high pressure dome still is on the way in the days following this front, and should bring dry, sunny weather to most corn areas. Another high follows for the end of next week. Getting there with no rain in-between means we may start to hear some desire to get a shower or two toward next weekend…but for now, we still have to look at this pattern as being nearly perfect.
Southern Brazil corn areas will pick up some decent moisture coming out of Argentina late this week into the weekend. This moisture will not make it much farther north than Parana. Moisture does fill in more next week over full season corn areas. Temps nearly normal.
A system coming out of the plains across the US Corn Belt over the weekend will have a second piece come through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This will have rain from I-70 southward but potentially heavy snow farther north. Cold air holds next week. A 3-4 day push of milder air from the 9th-12th will be met with another strong cold air blast at mid month, and that will also bring some potential for half inch moisture totals near mid month as well.
Sunny, dry and warm weather yesterday led to a lot of beans coming out of the fields. That pattern holds today, tomorrow and most of Saturday. Better rains work in starting late in the weekend and for next week. But we do not see any significant frontal interaction until late next week.
HRW areas still are on track to pick up another batch of moisture late this week and weekend. Moisture totals are all over the board, but in general, we can see from a quarter to three quarters of an inch of moisture. This system is coming into an already cold air mass…so there is a bigger chance of snow out of this system that what we saw this past weekend. Snow potential kicks off later tomorrow and then goes through the weekend.
We still moderat to heavy rain for sotuhern SRW areas, but the question is when it comes…as models are trying to delay it until early next week. Snows have better potential for this weekend over northern SRW areas. Mositure totals over SRW areas stil lranges from half to 1.25” or better over the 4 day period from Saturday through tusday. Temps get colder than normal behind the system, no matter when it actually clears the region.
Continued warmer than normal in FSU and Russian grain areas this week, with mostly dry weather through next week. Combined moisture totals will be under a quarter of an inch over 80% of the region.
Snow can become an issue over the next few days, but for feedlot areas, the biggest concerns will be from late tomorrow through the weekend. Snows look the heaviest east of the highest concentration of central plains feedlots, but still, cold air, snow and blowing snow will be problematic through Sunday.
A couple of snow events for this weekend and Tuesday-Wednesday next week could bring about some transportation issues. Otherwise, remaining cold, with well below normal temps.