Snow is in the forecast for this weekend, but the next wave of energy to come through at midweek next week has become all sorts of a mess.
We should see decent sunshine today and tomorrow as we gear up for a system coming out of the central plains on Sunday. Temps will continue to be below normal today and tomorrow with yet another blast of arctic air coming in. Moisture starts to work in from the west and southwest on Saturday overnight, and then continues through Sunday. We like the entirety of this precipitation from US 50 northward to be snow. WE look for 3-6 inches from I-70 northward, with nearly 100% coverage. South of US 50, we can see rain or a rain snow mix, as the freezing line sets up in that general area. Liquid equivalent will be up to or over half an inch over the northern two thirds of the state, up to 3 tenths over the southern third.
Next week, models continue to show massive moisture working in over the state for Tuesday through Wednesday. However the low is looking stronger, and there is more of a push of warm air in with this low. I am not ready to hop full force on that bandwagon yet…but there is some model agreement between the American and European model that pushes the freezing line up into southern lower Michigan on Tuesday, before bringing it back south on Wednesday. At that rate, we would be looking at all rain Tuesday, changing to snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before ending over northern Indiana, and all rain in the south. However, we think a push into the 50s all the way up into northern Indiana is a little over done, given the air masses in play here. Also, we like models to gravitate the low farther south in the runs ahead. So…we look for more snow in our solution in the days ahead. But…if current moisture totals are to be seen…we better pray its mostly rain…because we are seeing easily over an inch or water available for this event, which would be way, way, way too much snow if it worked that way. Even with the rains, we will have to increase our talk of flooding potential next week. So, stay tuned.
Following that system, we look colder than normal for the rest of the week next week. Arctic high pressure comes in, gives decent sun, but also keeps us cool. Models suggest warming in a 3-4 day time frame from the 10th-13th. The American model has now flipped and likes to keep the warmer air in play, while other models bring cold back toward the 14th-15th. There is plenty of time for that solution to work itself out, and we maintain that we like a cooler than normal pattern for at least the first half of March.