Models have backed away from some of our precipitation in the intermediate and extended parts of the forecast. At this time we will not make wholesale changes to our thoughts, but its not just one or two models that are backing down…it is most models. First, snow came just a little bit earlier than expected yesterday, but totals worked out pretty much as anticipated. 1-3 inches of snow fell over most of northern Indiana, ending as we moved through the evening and overnight hours. High pressure should settle in over the region later today, and hold through tomorrow. This high has Canadian origins, so we look for temperatures to be below normal for today and tomorrow.
Warmer air surges into the region on south winds behind the high. This will take temps to normal and above normal levels. The above normal temps will be in for central and southern parts of the state, while up north, the snow cover likely keeps us closer to normal, in the lower to middle 30s for Saturday and Sunday. We will be in the upper 30s to low 40s farther south.
Our next system is on the way for Sunday. Right now the precipitation looks to be delayed just a bit as the low comes in, and with warmer air in play, we look for the freezing rain threat to be shifted just a bit farther east, more over OH than in Indiana. This can easily shift back if the low slows just a bit…the track of the low is perfect to trigger some freezing rain over Indiana still…we just think that the timing will not be quite right. Also, the freezing line is farther north on the latest model runs, meaning that liquid precipitation is more likely over a larger part of the state, with snow (wet snow) now limited to the northernmost row or two rows of counties. WE still like liquid equivalent of .08-.15” over 70% of the state. OH looks better with .25” or better moisture.
Next week, models still argue over the cold a bit…the European brings colder air in for the first part of the week, moderates toward midweek and then another cold push toward the end. Other models try and keep us more even, and fairly close to normal. We do see that precipitation next week is less certain. Our midweek system for Wednesday may have to be pushed back into early Thursday and may only have a few hundredths to at most a tenth of an inch or moisture to work with. The system for valentines day weekend is nearly nonexistent now, looking to shift farther north into the Great Lakes region .However, if we get the warmer air to ease toward the end of next week and cold air to push farther south, we would look for that clipper to dive south out of the Great Lakes and still be on the docket for our region here.
The extended forecast shows a decent system around the 18th over Indiana, mostly snow, and then perhaps a follow up system around the 20th, as a low develops in the four corners area just ahead of that. However, that far out in the period, there is plenty of time for pattern change or modification.
Great action in Argentina this weekend with half to 1 inch rains moving through almost all the corn areas in Argentina. Another front later next week brings similar rains with slightly lower coverage, still around 60%. Our forecast is unchanged from yesterday. Heat may be an issue over western corn areas today and tomorrow, but should ease with more moisture moving in.
Rio Grande do Sul still looks drier in Southern Brazil, but the rest of the corn heavy areas in south and southeast Brazil look good. A cold front works through Santa Catarina and Parana through the weekend and will expand west and north as well. A second front for late next week coming out of Argentina should hit all areas with 1-3” rain totals, coverage at 90%. What RGDS lacks initially, it will get made up with the second, later front. Check out the 10 day precipitation map below.
Models are a little less enthusiastic about precipitation right now on the latest runs for the entirety of the US Corn Belt…but most of that is likely due to the strength in the ridge over the western part of the country. It has cut off traditional wet winter action coming up from the SW and central plains. However there are signs of a potential strong cut off low trying to form in the four corners area around the 19th-20th…which could flip the pattern. In the mean time, look for nearly normal temps in the east, even slightly below normal, but normal to above normal temps in the western part of the corn belt (and back into the plains).
Models are not backing away from good rains and good coverage across Brazil soy bean areas in the next 10 days. We will let the latest map speak for itself. While we may hear complaints on an intraday basis from the region of someone getting missed, you can not say with a broad brush stroke that it is going to be dry in this part of the world. Honestly, if we continue to see this kind of forecast and if it comes close to verifying…complaints may come from folks trying to harvest and being delayed. However, at this point, there likely will be windows of opportunity to get the crop out of the field. We like rains of 1-3 inches over 90% of the soy belt in the next 10 days, and locally higher amounts.
Warmer and drier now for HRW areas for the coming couple of weeks. Models had been trying to back the cold air up into the plains a bit toward mid month, but that now looks suspect. We think temps will average 10-20 degrees above normal through the weekend and all of next week. Precipitation will be at a minimum. The region will really need to see the cut off low we mentioned above in the Corn Belt section come together to get a good chance of rain in the next two weeks.
SRW should be looking good. Moisture this weekend and next week will be adequate, and this weekend it could come as mostly liquid, if current models hold. Temps look to be near to slightly below normal to the north, near to slightly above normal to the south.
Cold air is still coming for Russia and FSU areas. Snow cover, while adequate, is far from satisfactory or good. We can add a couple of inches as the cold air blasts in next week and the week following, but as we mentioned yesterday, scope will be limited to a few areas from western Kazakhstan to the southern region. Ukraine looks a little more active on the latest model runs and may do a little better on precipitation.