Next week looks drier, but we still have a chance for some action this Sunday. Honestly, the biggest story over the next 10 days to 2 weeks may be temperatures and their in ability to pick a side. Here is what we mean.
Above we have 4 maps. These are departure from normal maps. They are from Saturday, next Tuesday, next Wednesday, and next Friday. Notice the ups and downs. Well above normal Saturday, below Tuesday, above Wednesday and well below by next Friday. To say that our Hoosier weather is schizophrenic might be a bit of an understatement. Over the next week or so we can see these kinds of temperatures swings. We think the bigger swings will be in over the central and southern parts of the state, where snow cover is minimal. Up north the cooling affect of the snow might actually make model predictions a bit warmer than actual. We will see. In any case, look for 30s and 40s across the state in the warm period, and temps a good 5-7 degrees below normal through the cool period. A switch to below normal temps that stays will be in the cards for the second half of the month.
With regard to precipitation, we still have a low moving across the state on Sunday. This low tracks from Champaign, IL to Fort Recovery, OH to Akron from Sunday noon to midnight. This is a quick moving system. The freezing line will lift into southern lower MI as the low passes across the state, meaning light rain and drizzle for the most part during daylight hours. However, the freezing line shifts back south at nightfall as the cold front sweeps in, and with good wrap around moisture, we can some snow over the northern half of the state, mostly in the northeast quadrant. Snow is not likely elsewhere. In terms of totals, we like a coating to an inch over NE Indiana back into north-central areas, a trace to half an inch in NW Indiana, and nothing more than a trace anywhere else north of I-70. IF moisture availability changes we may have to adjust those totals, but for now, they look good…the best moisture just is not there. Freezing rain, if it is an issue at all, will be in over OH.
I am going to trend the rest of next week’s weather mostly dry. Minor little troughs work through, but likely do nothing more than trigger clouds at this time. The moisture is just not there. Temps will play the up and down game mentioned above. Longer term, we do see a major push of cold air coming back in after mid month, and longer range models are projecting a major storm to track out of the central plains up into the corn belt again around the 19th-20th. It could rival what we saw a week ago, if the track sets up right. Or, it could do nothing. Time will tell. J
A beautiful frontal boundary sweeps through Argentina from Saturday mid to late afternoon through Sunday and into early Monday. Great rains will fall over Buenos Aires province, Cordoba, Entre Rios and Santa Fe, along with action later Sunday into Monday over Chaco and Santiago del Estero. These are key corn areas, and will love this rain. Temps will be warmer than normal today and tomorrow ahead of the rains, but should pull back as the action starts. Next week we will follow up with another front for northern areas, Chaco and Santiago del Estero for Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong high pressure settles in over the region from late next week into the week following.
Extreme southern Brazil will be a little drier through the weekend into next Monday. Scattered showers will be around in Rio Grande do Sul, but that is it. However, from Tuesday through the rest of next week 2 fronts move through, and actually slow as the progress over the region. This will promote heavy rains in RGDS. The rest of SE Brazil looks good with rains in the half to 2 inch range combined through the next 10 days. RGDS, after starting slow, can see some localized 10 day totals of over 4 inches.
Temperatures take center stage in the US Corn Belt for the next week. We look for some big swings, but in general, more temps at or above normal than below, especially over the western half of the Corn Belt. At midweek next week, we start to see colder air dominate a bit more. The second half of the week should be below normal for the entire Corn Belt. Precipitation looks very minor between now and the end of next weekend. However a very active pattern begins to take shape after the 15th. A strong storm may bring half to 2 inch moisture totals to the corn belt, oh valley and TN valley for the 19th and 20th. But…there is plenty of time for the system to modify, or even go away.
A very strong system sitting off the southeast Brazil coast continues to throw plenty of moisture up into the mainland. This kind of set up is putting the best moisture down over eastern and northeastern parts of Brazil’s soy belt…the exact areas that were complaining a few weeks ago about heat and dryness. It may help pod fill and test weight on later beans in the area. For the rest of the 10 day period, we continue to see heat based scattered afternoon showers, and even though that strong offshore storm moves out to sea, the frontal boundary seems to stall and set up camp from southern Matto Grosso across to southern Minas Gerais through midweek next week. Models are going just a little drier now for the end of next week, which will allow some dry down and more harvest progress.
Above normal temps for HRW areas through midweek next week. No significant precipitation. Colder air is poised to come in for the second half of next week, but will only return temps to normal. Rain potential is limited until a system comes out of the 4 corners area around the 17th-18th.
SRW areas pick up a bit more moisture this weekend as a weak front moves through the great lakes and eastern Corn Belt. Rain totals will be under .2” and some of the moisture may end as snow in NE Indiana and NW OH. We still have a concern about freezing rain in parts of OH, but a large part of SRW acres will see rain and rain alone. Temps will be normal to above normal along and south of I-70, normal with some cold incursions north of I-70.
A strong storm system slowly moves through SW Russia and FSU areas at midweek next week. However, it basically keeps significant precipitation over the Black Sea and into the extreme southern part of Russia’s Southern region. This leave most of the rest of grain areas dry, while cold air blasts in. is still coming for Russia and FSU areas. Models hint at a very strong arctic front for the 17th-18th…but moisture looks to be limited at this time.
Warm and dry in beef cattle production areas for the next week. Temps return to normal by mid month. The next good precipitation outbreak for feedlot areas will hold off until closer to President’s Day. Northern and Eastern Dairy areas will see limited moisture after this weekend’s .05”-.25” potential. Temps will yo-yo from above normal to below. However, we don’t expect more than 10 degrees either side of normal on the extremes.
Freezing rain threat remains in OH for Sunday, mostly north central and northeast. Rain may end as snow in parts of northern IN and NW OH. Otherwise, the weather really has no impact on hog areas over the next week to 10 days. Looking ahead, if a strong storm does develop in the 4 corners area around the 17th-18th…we could see another significant event over hog areas toward the 19th-20th.