A slow move down in temps over the next few days, but we still wont rule out a bounce today with temps shooting back above normal for a short time. However, models continue to come into better and better agreement over several arctic blasts that are in line to hit the region as we finish the week, the weekend and move into next week. Most of the cold shots come with no precipitation, though. Temps will be 5-10 degrees below normal to finish the week tomorrow and Friday, and 10 degrees or more below normal for the weekend and most of next week.
The wave of low pressure that passes over the region next Monday night into Tuesday is fully a snow feature now .We like moisture equivalent of .1” to .25” across 90% of the state. That would equate to half to 2 inches of snow for the most part. The freezing line should be well south, meaning all areas would be in the snow part of the system. This could be a bigger snow event for places form the OH River to the TN valley.
Strong arctic high pressure follows that system in, with colder air than we expect this weekend. However, we may see the region devoid of major precipitation until the following weekend or even early the next week. A strong clipper will be followed by a strong system from the southwest…both of which may lead to some decent snows in the last week of the month.
We really wish we had something different, something exciting to report this morning on the international front…but models are pretty locked in to the pattern in the short term. Mostly dry weather settles in over Argentina to finish the week. The drier weather with high pressure makes us just a bit concerned about above normal temps…but we will see how the day plays out today before getting to overly worked up about warmth. Our next front is a minor one still on track for Sunday through early Tuesday. A strong off shore low is spawning this front…but it really has very little punch across land. While coverage remains at about 70% of corn areas, totals will be from .2” to .6”. A stronger front follows on the heels of that, bringing half to 1.5” rains for the 18th-19th with 70% coverage. Strong high pressure trying to come in behind may stay just off short, which would funnel colder south winds in over corn areas, and might trigger better shower and thunderstorm action toward the 22nd-25th. Time will tell.
Still plentiful moisture in Brazil corn areas. Stagnating fronts may produce excessive rains over Parana, Paraguay and southern Matto Grosso do Sul.
Look for the US Corn Belt to get colder over the coming 10 day period. Three back to back to back pushes of colder Canadian and arctic air will drop temps to below normal levels over the entire Corn Belt by the middle of next week. 10 day precipitation totals do not look overly impressive in the Corn Belt, but a little more so in the lower delta and Deep South. However, the 11-16 day period does look active and should hold above normal precipitation for a large part of the Corn Belt. Temps will go from nearly normal today to 10-15 degrees below normal by the middle and end of next week. A dramatic shift lower in temps will come in this weekend. Moisture early next week will be mostly snow across the Corn Belt, with liquid equivalents at a half inch or less.
Excessive moisture stays out of Brazil soybean areas over the next 10 days, but plentiful moisture should develop. We like rains for most of the soybean belt at half to 2.5”. The latest 10 day map of modeled precipitation continues to back up this supportive forecast.
Turning cooler later this week in HRW areas, but we may be setting up for an east vs. west story initially for Thursday and Friday. The west will bounce immediately out of today’s cooler temps, while the east sits there a day or two longer. Either way, a cold push for this weekend will finally bring the entire region back to normal, and then next week we can see colder air settle in for some below normal readings. Precipitation will be limited. Models show the next system for early next week drawing moisture off the gulf mostly when it is already to the east of the region. So…eastern areas may pick up a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but western locations will likely miss out. Longer term, we still look for some moisture to come out of a trough developing over the SW US…but models are a little less bullish on the heavier rains for right now (a normal day 13-15 bias). We expect that solution will gain more traction as we get closer to the day 10-11 period.
SRW areas look colder on the latest model runs. The best precipitation over the next week will likely hit southern SRW areas, while northern areas get mostly minor amounts. But…the cold air is not to be trifled with. We look for well below normal temps from this weekend through at least the 25th.
No change in Eurasia for the coming forecast period. Cold air remains to the north through day 11, but precipitation remains nearly nonexistent for the heart of Russia and FSU winter crop areas. We look for no more than a 2 tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent for Ukraine, Russia’s Central Region, the Volga region and Kazakhstan between now and the 21st.