The USDA prospective plantings report and quarterly stocks report will be released this morning, and the market is eagerly waiting for the first look at that this year’s crop might be. According to Tom Fritz with EFG in Chicago, the market is looking for a bullish set of numbers. He said the average trade guess on corn acreage is 97.3 million acres, “That is about 100,000 more acres than we had last year, and I think most people are comfortable with this number.” He said a bigger issue for the trade, in the short term, is planting delays due to cool wet weather.
On the soybean side, “The trade guess is 78.5 million acres. That would be about a 1.8 million acre increase, and that expectation has been a drag on the soybean market.” In addition if there is a delay in corn planting, that would mean some growers might switch to soybeans, putting even more pressure on soybean prices.
But according to Fritz, the stocks number may have more of an influence of market reaction than the acreage number. Average expectations for corn stocks is 5.030 billion bushels; that is down almost 1 billion bushels from a year ago. Soybean stocks are forecast to be 947 million; that is one of the lowest soybean stock levels on record. Fritz told HAT higher numbers could be a drag on the market but says, if the numbers are lower, look for a big market reaction, “If the corn stocks number has a 4 in front of it, you will definitely see a sharp market reaction. If the soybean number is 930 or lower, you will see a jump in soybean prices.”
HAT will have the numbers and market reaction on the air, on line, and on your Smartphone. The Hoosier Ag Today Mid-day edition will have a complete rundown of the report and in-depth analysis. This audio report will be on this web site at about 12:30 pm and in the audio section of the Hoosier Ag Today Smartphone app.