Home Market Market Watch Market Review Week Ending 6/28/2012 With Gary Wilhemi

Market Review Week Ending 6/28/2012 With Gary Wilhemi


I am going to Detroit too see my grandsons play ball this weekend and will catch up when I get back. The EU summit is not expected to reach meaningless conclusions, or as Merkel of Germany says “don’t be optimistic”. The track record of such confabs is abysmal as they have one currency, but multiple fiscal policies and deep cultural differences. As former Fed Chairman Greenspan recently stated the euro is a failed experiment. As if Europe is not enough of worry our economic crisis is worsening in regards to unemployment, personal savings, and an over regulated economy which is not free to create.

The corn crop ratings dropped 7% this past week and beans down 3% and rain fall prospects are poor. The Midwestern desert is expanding into Iowa and Missouri. Illinois corn is rated 25% poor. Private estimates on plantings were running about 96 million corn and 75.2 million beans as well and a full production of over 14 billion bushels of corn and 3 billion beans.

The quarterly stocks guess was 3.67 billion bushel of corn, 619 million beans and 1.21 billion bushels of wheat. Watch out for these stocks reports as they often contain revisions of past errors.
Sensationalism is always present, but this time new dust bowl concerns have credence in a long term dryness extending back into winter.

A friend of mine from the trading floor days thinks that the dryness is perhaps related to sun spots and am going to research such activity in the 1930’s, if it even exits.

The Dog days of summer are upon us and meat demand is threatened anew along with the prevailing budgetary concerns. Pork cutout look toppy at $101 and boxed beef has backed away slightly from its record $198.50 high. Cattle breakeven are up at $135 with a cash market at $115. Support in August cattle is also at $115. The limit spike in corn last week pounded feeder cattle down its limit, as feed costs race higher.

It is going to be hot time in the Corn Belt, while things don’t look so hot in Europe or Washington.

Where have all the leaders gone? I don’t see any Churchill’s or FDR’s out there.

The latest update on over head resistance I have heard is $6.73 ½ on December corn and $14.43 ¼ November soybeans.

Watch out for dust storms and prairie fires as sun spot activity resembles the 1930’s.

Extreme heat pushed cattle and hogs values sharply higher on impaired weights gains.

The Supreme Court ruling on health care will leave the issue and function puzzling as we have never understood what is in the law. Court up holds mandate in Health Care, but the split decision 5-4 by the court indicates there are many uncertainties yet to be determined in the 90 page opinion