Buckle up; the Hoosier weather pattern is going to get a lot more exciting in the next 10 days. Models continue to come around to my thinking about a system coming out of TX this weekend, with the latest European runs taking moisture right up across our great state for the second half of the weekend. But…before we get there, we have to work through some warmer air and a quick moving clipper system.
Temperatures should bounce today, helped by west and southwest winds. We are looking for 2 days of normal to above normal temps. Today, sunshine will help, as high pressure moves overhead. Tomorrow, southerly winds will keep temps a bit above normal ahead of a weak boundary that slips through from the northwest. That boundary triggers minor precipitation, mostly rain, and amounts of a few hundredths to a tenth. This will be mostly light rain or even drizzle, but a wet feel nonetheless. Temps should be in the 30s to low 40s over most of the state today and tomorrow, although snowpack over the northern third of the state may keep temps just a bit cooler from US24 northward.
Colder air comes in behind the front Thursday, and will take temps down a notch or two for Friday and Saturday. The freezing line will slip down to the OH river Saturday, meaning temps will stay under 32 degrees over most of the state thanks to Canadian high pressure. This will be key, as cold air will drive precipitation type as our larger event comes in for Sunday.
Moisture begins to push into the region overnight Saturday night and continues through Sunday. Watch the freezing closely. South winds ahead of the low will likely warm the southern half of the state, but the freezing line likely does not move north of ST Rd 26. So, as precipitation develops, we look for all or mostly snow over the northern 40% of the state rain mixing with or changing to snow farther south. Precipitation totals will be in the .2”-.5” range, which will mean decent snows up north, although we will wait to put out our snow totals until late tomorrow or early Friday. One reason why is that I think we can see this low actually trend even farther north, and pull in some more moisture – that has been the trend so far with the model runs from this past Sunday through today.
And this is just the beginning. After a couple of days with cold Canadian high pressure, we see a clipper system hit for the Wednesday the 4th bringing .1-.4” of moisture (snow over the northern half of the state, rain/snow mix south). Then another clipper with minor snows statewide for the 6th-7th. Temps drop to well below normal levels through the week next week, with each front/clipper bringing in air masses that are 5-7 degrees colder than the prior air mass.
The extended period shows a plethora of moisture being thrown at the west coast. The GFS model takes a blasé approach to the extended period, keeping us cold, but not as active. We like a more active solution, with that moisture hitting the west coast coming through and brining at least a few clipper systems through the 11-16 day period and some easy snows.
Weather that Impacts CORN:
Nice, timely rains in Argentina going forward with moisture today through late Friday over all key corn areas in Argentina. We are keeping rain totals of .25”-1” with the bulk of the region in the top half of the range. The action goes more scattered for the first half of next week before we get some net drying in to finish next week. The far extended pattern shows another good front around the 10th of February.
Brazil rains actually favor corn ground in the short term, with the best moisture for days 1-7 coming across the southern part of Matto Grosso down through Matto Grosso do Sul and into Parana, Santa Catarina and Sao Paulo. Rains in that belt will be half to 1.5” with coverage at 80%. Extended period rains shift a bit farther north, but we still should see scattered rains that produce up to half-1” totals next week into the week following. The only exception may be extreme southern Brazil, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul…where we may go drier next week and beyond.
Models continue to bring the moisture from this weekend’s system into the Corn Belt. We see precipitation totals of at least a quarter of an inch up into IA and IL, half to three quarters of an inch into MO and the OH valley. We will follow this weekend’s system with more active precipitation pattern for next week and into the week following. Temps hold on for 1 more mild day, but look for well below normal temps on average to finish the week and through the rest of the forecast period.
We really see no reason to change thoughts in Brazil Soy country at this time. From now through the weekend, precipiation will be scattered and more focused on the western and southern rim of soy country, from western Matto Grosso through Matto Grosso do Sul and into Parana. There we like rains (5 day totals) of up to 1 inch with local amoutns near 2 in extreme southwest Matto Grosso. Eastern MT, Goias and western Minas Gerais will be drier with under a third of an inch. From next week on through day 10, we see bette rcoverage over the entire soy belt with addiaional totals up to 1 inch. From days 11-16, stronger fronts are projected, but we look for those to diminish in intensity as we move into the shorter term period, as the model bias toward better rains in the extended period holds true.
Argentina soy areas look good with some reports of water standing in some soy fields in norhtenr Argentina. Rains in the 10 days ahead look to favor Entre Rios, norhtern Cordoba and norhtenr Buenos Aires.
The warmest air is gone today, and we now look for a steady move lower in temperatures. We expect about a 50 degree difference in high temperatures from yesterday to what we see around Sunday. However, as temperature changes go, this one will be manageable. There will be some concern about wheat, but with decent moisture profile already in place, the crop should handle this kind of change. WE will look for some potential rain and snow added to the region as our system lifts out of TX Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation will be limited to mostly areas over OK and TX in the weeks ahead, but the cold air resurgence is just beginning, with temps even colder (in relation to normal) at day 10 than we see this Sunday. Maps below are departure from normal maps for noon this Sunday, and 6 am Friday, February 6th.
Much better precipitation continues to work into SRW areas for this weekend and next week. The same precipitation pattern outlined in the Corn Belt section and even for Indiana will play out for all SRW areas. Moisture will be better for southern SRW, especially along and south of the OH River…but the atmospheric set up is much better going forward for SRW than what models were showing a couple of weeks back. Cold air will jerk people back to reality in the SRW belt…but at this point, it does not look like a dramatic enough shift to cause any concern with the crop.
No significant change in FSU areas. Strong high pressure keeps eastern locations dry, but we see on again and off again moisture in western areas through midweek next week, predominantly the central and southern regions in Russia along with Ukraine. There we can see 10 day moisture totals up to three quarters of an inch, although it comes in small, short spurts. Temps will be above normal from this weekend through most of next week. The extended period brings that active pattern eastward, and will bring .25-.5” liquid equivalents to the Volga region and the Urals.