Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The dollar is much stronger this morning on renewed expectations of an interest rate hike later this year, trading nearly 1,000 points higher at times and at a three-week high.

·         Old-crop export sales for the week ending April 3 totaled just 25.2 million bushels of corn, 11.8 million bushels of wheat and net reductions of 6.5 million bushels of soybeans.

·         Brazil’s ABIOVE states that at least 400,000 metric tons of soybeans and soymeal have been unable to be shipped out of the Port at Santos due to the inability of trucks to deliver product to the port as a road is blocked due to a nearby fuel facility fire. However, the road is now open at night and an alternative road is being worked on for day deliveries.

·         Wheat exports are poor amid the strong dollar and good soaking rains are forecast for most dry areas of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt over the coming week.

·         Key numbers for USDA’s monthly crop report are as follows:

 

U.S. Ending Stocks

2014-15

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA April Report

0.684

1.827

0.370

Average Trade Estimate

0.692

1.854

0.370

Highest Trade Estimate

0.721

1.999

0.399

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.671

1.750

0.347

Previous USDA Estimate

0.691

1.777

0.385

Water Street Solutions

0.693

1.774

0.371

 

South American Production

Argentina

Brazil

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

MMT of Production

USDA Report

24.00

57.00

75.00

94.50

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

23.90

57.23

74.82

94.18

Highest Trade Estimate

29.30

60.20

77.40

95.00

Lowest Trade Estimate

22.00

55.50

73.00

93.00

Previous USDA Estimate

23.50

56.00

75.00

94.50

Water Street Solutions

26.00

58.00

75.00

94.50

 

·         Corn futures are down 2 and off their lows, but have done some chart damage.

·         Soybean futures are down 17 cents and are still near their lows.

·         Wheat futures are down 8 cents in Chicago and 13 cents in KC.

·         Live cattle futures are 15 to 30 cents higher waiting for this week’s cash trade.

·         Feeder cattle are 10 to 55 cents higher and consolidating.

·         Lean hog futures are 15 to 65 cents weaker.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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