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Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The euro has firmed this morning, sending the dollar lower while increasing the flow of money into the broader commodity complex.

·         The Brazilian government continues to insist that it does not expect a truckers strike to begin Thursday, although failure of the talks it is mediating between truckers and shippers between now and then would significantly raise the odds.

·         Local analysts indicate that a broad truckers strike similar to the one that paralyzed trade in February is not likely, but that rather Brazil will likely see minor localized strikes.

·         Traders remain unfazed by planting delays seen in Monday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report.

·         Corn futures remain 5 – 6 cents lower today as traders focus on ample global supplies at cheaper prices. Brazil and Ukrainian prices are 55 to 60 cents below U.S. Gulf prices.

·         Soybeans are 2 cents lower on easing fears of a Brazilian truckers strike.

·         Wheat is 5 cents higher in Chicago, 4 cents higher in KC and 8 cents higher in Minneapolis on short-covering following recent losses and continued deterioration of conditions in the Plains.

·         Live cattle futures are largely $0.70 to $1.00 higher on a technical bounce following recent sharp losses amid the big discount of futures to cash. Choice cuts are up $1.56, while Select cuts are down $1.24 on routine movement in the spot market this morning.

·         Feeder cattle are following the lead of the fat cattle market, with futures up mostly $0.95 to $1.35 per cwt.

·         Lean hog futures are up $0.425  for the lead May contract, but $1.80 to $2.10 higher for the deferred contracts on signs that the cash and product markets are carving out a broad bottom. Hogs in the closely-watched Iowa/Southern Minnesota market is steady to 50 cents higher, while the rest of the Midwest is mostly steady. The composite pork product price is $0.98 higher on routine trade volume at midday.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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