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Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The dollar has been on a roller coaster ride today, trading on both sides of the 100-day moving average, with money flow both in and out of the broader commodity sector inverse of price direction for the greenback.

·         There’s been a lot of fundamental reasons given for price movement in the grains this morning, but the strongest correlation to this point has been the above money flow dynamics.

·         Underlying the above is the lingering bearish cloud that continues to hang over the grain and oilseed complex.

·         Export sales for the week ending April 23 included 32.8 million bushels of old-crop and 4.5 million bushels of new-crop corn, 0.2 million old- and 10.7 million bushels of new-crop grain sorghum, 15.9 million bushels of old-crop, along with net cancellations of 4.4 million bushels of new-crop soybeans.

·         Old-crop wheat export sales were a net reduction of 16.5 million bushels, but the bulk of those bushels were rolled to new-crop to bring new-crop sales to 31.3 million bushels. Rolling those purchases this early suggests weak demand fundamentals.

·         Cash hogs are trading mostly steady to $2 higher this morning; steady to 50 cents higher in the closely followed Iowa/Southern Minnesota market.

·         More than 15.4 million birds have been culled due to Avian Flu thus far, yet that’s still such a small percent of total flock that Bunge’s CEO quoted as saying that impact on soymeal demand not materially seen.

·         Corn futures are down 3 to 4 cents on general weakness in the grains amid rapid planting and abundant long-term supplies.

·         Soybean prices are down 11 to 14 cents on renewed focus on large supplies.

·         Wheat futures are down 10 to 11 cents on weak export demand.

·         Live cattle futures are down $0.85 to $1.20 consolidating lower while waiting for direction from the cash market.

·         Feeder cattle are down 45 to 50 cents on that weakness.

·         Lean hog futures are up $0.45 to $1.75 on ongoing strength in cash and product prices.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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