Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The currency market has had larger impact on money flow into the broader commodity complex today, providing supportive undertones.

·         Anxiety increased among speculative fund managers earlier this morning ahead of USDA’s crop report amid anecdotal reports of frost damage to corn and wheat in the Plains due to cold temperatures.

·         Today’s Midwest cash hog market was steady to 50 cents higher in Illinois and in the closely watched Iowa/Southern Minnesota markets, while mostly steady elsewhere.

·         Corn futures are up 2 cents on the USDA data.

·         Soybean futures are down 8 cents on the big new-crop ending stocks.

·         Wheat futures are up 3 cents on a neutral USDA report.

·         Live cattle futures are 5 to 35 cents higher on stronger product prices this morning.

·         Feeder cattle futures are mixed.

·         Lean hog futures are 30 to 80 cents higher on a stronger product market.

·         USDA released its May crop report at 11 a.m. CDT this morning, including its first regular supply and demand estimates for the 2015-16 marketing year. Key numbers are compared to trade estimates below:

U.S. Ending Stocks

2015-16

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA May Report

0.793

1.746

0.500

Average Trade Estimate

0.750

1.752

0.443

Highest Trade Estimate

0.883

2.267

0.582

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.558

1.551

0.310

Previous USDA Estimate

na

na

na

Water Street Solutions

0.832

1.551

0.405

 

South American Production

Argentina

Brazil

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

MMT of Production

USDA Report

24.50

58.50

78.00

94.50

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

24.95

58.50

76.87

94.44

Highest Trade Estimate

29.80

61.00

80.30

95.00

Lowest Trade Estimate

23.00

57.00

73.80

93.50

Previous USDA Estimate

24.00

57.00

75.00

94.50

Water Street Solutions

26.00

59.00

75.00

94.50

 

U.S. Wheat Production

2014-15

All Winter

HRW

SRW

WW

All Wheat

billions of bushels

USDA May 12 Report

1.472

0.853

0.416

0.191

          2.087     

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.470

0.845

0.420

0.205

2.096

Highest Trade Estimate

1.526

0.925

0.480

0.300

2.178

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.388

0.735

0.380

0.175

2.003

Previous USDA Estimate

1.378

0.738

0.455

0.184

2.026

Water Street Solutions

1.488

0.873

0.410

0.205

2.107

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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