Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update



Midday Update

·         Three terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and North Africa have had little impact on the markets.

·         Greek uncertainty hangs over the markets, along with today’s expiration of July options, the end of the fiscal quarter on Tuesday, first notice day for delivery against July contracts on Tuesday, USDA’s quarterly hogs and pigs report this afternoon, USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report on Tuesday and USDA’s planted acreage report on Tuesday. Of course, all of that takes place just ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend as pollination begins in the corn crop.

·         European traders started today’s rally due to heat and dryness in Europe combined with reports they were seeing of excessive rains creating flooding in the U.S. Midwest.

·         Early-trade buying reached major chart objectives for corn and soybeans, while also triggering selling points held by many farmers across the Midwest.

·         Cash corn and soybean movement is said to be heavy, but the market has absorbed it well to this point, although basis is weakening.

·         July corn rallied to the $3.90 strike price but is now up 6 and closer to the $3.80 strike.

·         July soybeans popped above the attractive $10.20 strike price to a high of $10.245, but is now trading up 9 cents near $10.09, with $10 another attractive strike price, although less so.

·         Wheat futures at five-month highs in Chicago, up 29 cents and just a nickel off their high, while KC is up 23 and at a 3-cent discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is up 18 cents.

·         June live cattle are up 70 cents to $149.20 after cash cattle traded mostly at $148 in Kansas, with a some at $147.00 in Nebraska, while the deferred contracts are up 5 to 10 cents after Thursday’s lows held on the charts.

·         Feeder cattle are $1.10 lower in the August on the higher corn costs, although firmer in the deferred months.

·         Lean hog futures are 30 to 65 cents higher in consolidation ahead of this afternoon’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report. Product prices are soft on slow movement this morning. Cash hogs are mostly steady to up to $1 lower.

June 26 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs


Trade Est.


percent of previous year

All hogs June 1


107.4 – 109.0

Kept for Breeding


101.3 – 102.6

Kept for Market


107.9 – 110.8

Pig Crop

March to May


106.1 – 109.0

Weight Groups

Under 50 lbs.


106.0 – 111.5

50 to 119 lbs.


106.1 – 110.2

120 to 179 lbs.


108.2 – 111.6

Over 180 lbs.


107.8 – 111.8


March to May


102.0 – 102.5

Farrowing Intentions

June to August


97.0 – 101.2

September to November


97.4 – 102.2

Pigs per Litter

March to May


105.0 – 108.0



All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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