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Midday Update



Midday Update

·         Some Greek banks will reportedly open on Thursday for pensioners to withdraw money. The banks are otherwise expected to remain closed through Sunday’s Greek vote.

·         The dollar is moving into negative territory, down more than 300 points, and the euro bouncing, suggesting that the currency markets may have priced a worst case scenario in already. That’s good for the grains.

·         The grain and oilseed markets are not seeing the direction of their price moves determined by the dollar so much anymore, but the scope of the move is influenced.

·         A developing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific is expected to create considerable dryness over much of central and eastern Australia wheat areas in July.

·         COCERAL is a grain trade organization in Europe. It lowered its European Union soft wheat production estimate to 140.6 million metric tons due to drought, down from 148.3 mmt previously, while lowering its corn estimate to 65.7 mmt, down from 73.8 mmt previously.

·         A Reuters’ survey revealed trade expectations that this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report will put the corn crop at 69% Good to Excellent, down 2 points on the week, while soybeans slip to 63% Good to Excellent, also down 2 points on the week.

·         The trade expects USDA to peg soybean planting as of Sunday at 93% complete, up from 90% the previous week, but down from the 5-year average for the week of 96%.

·         Winter wheat ratings are expected to decline 1 point to 40% Good to Excellent, while spring wheat remains unchanged at 71% Good to Excellent. The trade expects USDA to put winter wheat harvest at 30% harvested as of Sunday, up 11 points on the week, but down 16 points from the five-year average for the week.

·         Corn and soybean traders are being somewhat cautious ahead of the end of the fiscal quarter tomorrow and two big reports from USDA known for their surprises.

·         Corn futures are generally 2 to 3 cents higher on crop concerns focused on the southern third of the belt, while production looks much better further north.

·         Soybean futures are up 6 cents for July, but up just 1-cent for November, with strength largely on ideas that old-crop stocks will be much tighter than currently suggested by USDA.

·         Wheat futures are up 21 cents in Chicago, up 17 cents in KC and up 14 cents in MN on global weather concerns.

·         August live cattle are up $1.15 to $1.40 on technical strength after bouncing off chart support.

·         Feeder cattle are up 60 to 80 cents on strength in the fat cattle market, with corn coming off its highs.

·         Lean hog futures are 50 to 85 cents weaker in the July and August contracts, but $0.80 to $1.55 higher in the deferred contracts on Friday’s USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report. Cash hogs are mostly steady in the Midwest, although a bit weaker in the closely watched Iowa/Southern Minnesota market. Product prices are firmer.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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