Home Market Market Watch Midday Update

Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         Stats Canada survey of 24,500 producers revealed intentions to plant 17.145 million acres of spring wheat this year, down from 18.004 million in the March and down 264,000 from the previous year. Durum acres though are up 21% from the previous year.

·         This week’s showlist in the Plains feedlot region was down 20,000 head of cattle from the previous week as packers prepare to buy for their return from the Independence Day holiday, raising expectations of steady or better cash trade this week.

·         Many packers have all the hogs they need for this week’s holiday-shortened slaughter schedule. Cash hogs are again steady to 50 cents weaker in the closely watched Iowa/Southern Minnesota market, while mostly steady elsewhere.

·         Tonight’s grain and oilseed markets will delay opening until 7:45 p.m. CDT to facilitate the adding of the periodic “leap” second to the international clock at the normal opening time.

·         However, the big news today is USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports. Key market-moving numbers are summarized below:

Quarterly Stocks

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA June 1 Estimates

0.753

4.447

0.625

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

0.718

4.555

0.670

Highest Trade Estimate

0.740

4.700

0.707

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.688

4.419

0.604

USDA Previous Year

0.590

3.852

0.405

Water Street Solutions

0.721

4.583

0.672

 

USDA June 1 Acreage

2015-16

Corn

Soybeans

All Wheat

Winter Wheat

Spring Wheat

Durum

millions of acres

USDA June 1 Survey Results

88.897

85.139

56.079

40.620

13.505

1.954

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

89.292

85.171

55.867

40.822

13.214

1.809

Highest Trade Estimate

91.742

86.760

57.200

42.000

13.500

2.232

Lowest Trade Estimate

88.450

83.760

55.100

40.500

12.800

1.600

USDA March 31

89.199

84.635

55.367

40.751

12.969

1.647

Water Street Solutions

88.900

85.900

55.753

40.673

13.350

1.730

 

·         Corn futures are up 12 cents in a resumption of the rally.

·         Soybean futures are up 18 cents in a resumption of the rally.

·         Wheat is u 3 in Chicago, down 2 in KC and down 4 in MN on the stocks and acreage numbers.

·         Live cattle are 40 to 65 cents weaker. Product prices are mixed this morning on slow movement.

·         Feeder cattle are down $1.75 to $2.45 on weaker fats.

·         Lean hogs are up $1.60 to $2.05 on positive charts after yesterday.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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