· Export shipments in the week ending September 25 totaled 23.7 million bushels of corn, 11.7 million bushels of grain sorghum (big!), 25.2 million bushels of soybeans (good) and 21.1 million bushels of wheat.
· Modest harvest delays are expected in the Midwest this week primarily from Wednesday to Friday.
· USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. CDT.
· Traders are taking profits on short (sold) positions ahead of tomorrow’s reports.
· The trade expects this afternoon’s USDA crop progress report to show corn harvest at 15%, soybean harvest at 11%, and winter wheat harvest at 41%, while I’m looking for 14%, 12% and 43% respectively.
· The trade is expecting corn and soybean condition ratings to remain unchanged at 74 & 71% respectively, while I’m looking for each to be a point higher.
· Corn, soybean and wheat prices are trying to bounce, but thus far the strength is being sold, reflecting the ongoing bearish sentiment in the market.
· Corn futures are up 1 to 2 cents on the above.
· Soybean futures are up 6 to 7 cents on the above.
· Chicago wheat is up 3 cents, while KC is steady and MN is up 1.
· Live cattle futures are $1.00 to $1.25 higher on ideas that packers will need to pay up this week, despite margins deep in the red.
· Feeder cattle are up $0.85 to $2.05 on continued bullish attitudes at the local feeding level.
· Lean hog futures are mostly 20 to 40 cents lower, after being sharply lower earlier in the session on Friday’s bearish USDA data. Product prices are up across the board this morning.
All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.
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