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Midday Update



Midday Update

·         The dollar is nearly 300 points higher and big money is shorting (selling) the major commodity sector. That makes it tougher for grain and oilseed prices to sustain rallies and amplifies losses when they go down.

·         The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 145.227 million bushels of soybeans in July, beating the previous July record of 142.626 million bushels set in 2006. The total comes in above 142.473 processed in June and above trade expectations of 141.5 million bushels. My pre-report estimate was 143.323 million bushels.

·         The primary focus today is the highly-anticipated beginning of the 2015 Pro Farmer crop tour. The top theme that I’ve taken from reports so far is the variability of the crop, with very few of the yields impressing me. Keep in mind that tour participants don’t get into the best of the crop until later this week, and they have seen some good fields already today. However, USDA’s yield estimates were at historically high levels last Wednesday, suggesting a need to see either greater consistency, or more exceptional yields, especially in the west.

·         Corn futures are near unchanged this morning in choppy sideways trade while waiting for clearer direction following last week’s bearish USDA crop report.

·         Soybeans are steady to 2 cents lower, with soymeal less than $1 per ton higher. Traders are again trying to sort through what all of the reports from the field mean.

·         Wheat futures are 5 to 6 cents lower on abundant supplies and weak corn prices.

·         Live cattle futures are drifting mostly 10 to 40 cents lower, although the lead August contract is down $1 on last week’s disappointing cash trade, which was quite thin at generally $148 to $150 per cwt on a live basis. Boxed beef movement is routine for a Monday, with prices modestly higher.

·         Feeder cattle are steady to $1 lower this morning on soft fat cattle prices and worries about higher feed prices.

·         Lean hogs $0.60 to $1.30 higher on follow-through chart-related buying after October hogs pushed above $66 per cwt. Today’s cash hog market is mixed, with firmer tones. Product prices are modestly higher.


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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