* The outside markets are turning lower ahead of tomorrow’s monthly jobs report, with stocks and commodities turning weaker after a solid start. That’s made rallies tougher to sustain for corn and wheat, while amplifying losses for soybeans.
* Export sales for the week ending September 24 totaled 31.5 million bushels of corn (adequate), 6.4 million bushels of grain sorghum (adequate), 92.2 million bushels of soybeans (big) and 2.8 million bushels of wheat (pathetic).
* A surge in the dollar during the week cut beef export sales nearly in half, while pork sales remained strong. Soymeal sales for old- & new-crop combined were strong as well during the week.
* Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher this morning. Selling increases whenever prices start to approach overhead resistance at $3.95, while buying emerges when prices dip below $3.90. Basis is holding firm, especially in areas expected to see a deficit of production in the east.
* Soybean futures are 9 cents lower. Prices turned lower on increased farmer sales just below chart resistance off the July and August highs, which also coincided with a sell-off in the major commodity indices.
* Wheat futures are 9 cents higher on continued short-covering and bargain-buying as prices rise to their highest level since August 11. Fundamentally, traders can point to Wednesday’s USDA friendly stocks and small grains summary reports as well as dryness in the winter wheat belt, Australia, Russia and Ukraine, but global and domestic supplies are still quite big.
* October live cattle are $3.85 lower after cash cattle trade emerged in Kansas yesterday afternoon at $124 per cwt on a live basis, down $4 to $6 on the week. Boxed beef prices were mixed on routine movement.
* Feeder cattle are down $2 to $2.70 on weakness in the fats and firm corn prices.
* Lean hogs are seeing a sell-off after traders grew nervous following recent big gains as supply remains larger than projected by USDA and demand is expected to wane over the next several weeks. Contracts are generally $1.70 to $2.50 lower through February. Cash hogs are $0.50 to $1 higher. Product movement is good with the composite price $1.49 higher on good belly demand.
All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.
The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.