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Midday Update

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Midday Update

·         The Department of Labor reports that the economy created 248K jobs in September, above expectations of 215K. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%, down from 6.1% previously. July and August job creations were also revised upward.

·         The dollar exploded higher on the jobs report, leading to a steady flow of money out of the broader commodity sector.

·         Corn and soybean prices have tried to rally as a wetter pattern sets up in the Midwest, particularly southern and eastern areas, slowing harvest progress.

·         Informa reportedly raised its corn and soybean yield estimates to 176.4 and 48.5 bushels per acre respectively this morning. That puts its corn production estimate at 14.395 billion and soybeans at 4.017 billion.

·         Rallies have been difficult to sustain in the face of the stronger dollar and general outflow of speculative money from the broader commodity sector.

·         Freeze warnings have been posted for parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska, with frost warnings out for parts of Kansas this weekend.

·         Corn prices are fractionally mixed in consolidation.

·         Soybeans are down 7 cents on big crop expectations as the basis market softens.

·         Wheat is steady to mixed in Chicago, up 3 in Kansas City and up 4 in Minneapolis. Some support seen from increasing dryness in Australia over the next couple of weeks.

·         Live cattle futures are down 40 to 50 cents on profit taking after hitting new highs early today. Additional weakness comes from money flowing out of the broader commodity sector as the dollar surges higher on this morning’s jobs report.

·         Feeder cattle are down 25 to 95 cents on profit taking ahead of the weekend after hitting new highs on a strong cash market earlier today.

·         Lean hogs are down $1.20 to $1.75 after prices failed to take out resistance at the top of its recent trading range. The composite pork product price is up $2.01 on strong belly demand this morning.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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