The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the Department of Agriculture projects smaller corn and soybean crops this year. The corn crop is projected at 14.0 billion bushels, down from last year with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 174.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.30 to $4.30 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint from 2017/18.
Meanwhile, the U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.2 billion bushels, down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower acres and lower yield projections. The 2018/19 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.75 to $11.25 per bushel compared with $9.35 per bushel in 2017/18.
USDA upped the 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop five percent at a projected 1.8 billion bushels on higher acres and a slightly higher yield. However, winter wheat yields are below average in the drought-affected states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The season-average farm price is projected at a range of $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.
Full analysis is here in the HAT Newsmaker Podcast with @MikeSilverSr of Kokomo Grain. He said soybeans were the winners with a drop in stocks.