Aside from the USDA June supply and demand and acreage reports coming Thursday at Noon eastern time, market analysts say we are now in a weather market. So is July weather shaping up to be bullish or bearish on corn and bean prices? HAT Chief Meteorologist Ryan Martin says going into the month there isn’t a lot of major weather concern.
“A lot of the weather concern has garnered attention with the ‘if’ part of the forecast, i.e. if we get heat building as we move through the middle of July, or if it turns dry,” Martin explained. “The current situation over a good part of the United States at least has the crop in good condition and we have decent soil moisture. Even the driest areas of the Corn Belt as it stands right now are in line to pick up anywhere from 1-3, maybe 4 inches of rain as we move from this weekend on in to early next week. However, things can change very easily if we do get some heat to build. I am looking with some concern at two heat domes trying to build in later in the month of July, one closer to mid-month, and then one toward the end of the month. We’ll see if that holds true.”
Martin says that could change the weather in a heartbeat, which could the change the market just as quickly. In the Hoosier state moisture in July should not be a problem.
“In Indiana we’re sitting on a good deal of moisture across the state top to bottom and some would say we have too much in areas. It has led to a fairly uneven crop to this point. Generally speaking, in July I think we’re looking at timely moisture, ok moisture, so I’m not concerned about dryness at all through the month. If I’m going to be concerned about anything it would be warmer than normal temperatures. We actually have seen June finish on an above normal note and we will carry that into July, probably starting the first half of the month with maybe one to two degrees above normal on the whole. Then if we get those heat domes to develop the second half of the month that would raise the overall temperature.”
Now the key question for the corn crop is when does pollination happen?
“We do know that a good chunk of the corn in Indiana went in later so the pollination days will be pushed back toward mid-month. It might be timing up right there with some of the hotter air trying to move in.”
And he says that’s the story to keep an eye on over the next week to 10 days.