The USDA Planting Intentions report released on Thursday indicated that US farmers intend to plant 93.6 million acres of corn – 5.6 million acres more than were planted in 2015. The survey also showed farmers will be dropping their spring wheat acres to the lowest level since 1972.
Purdue Economist Dr. Chris Hurt says this represents major shift in production, “This report shows a major shift in production acres from wheat to corn. Most of this took place in the western states where 4.8 million acres were move from wheat to corn in the Intentions report.”
But Hurt says, even in the Corn Belt, producers are favoring corn over soybeans, “In all of the Midwest states, growers indicated they intend to plant more corn than soybeans.” Indiana farmers intend to plant 5.80 million acres of corn for all purposes and 5.55 million acres of soybeans in 2016, according to the Greg Matli, State Statistician of the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office. If these intentions are realized, acreage planted to corn would be up 3 percent from the previous year, while soybean planted acreage remains the same as last year. According to the USDA report,
Illinois producers are planting more than 500,000 more acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat combined, as all three of those crops are seeing acreage expansion. A USDA representative attributed the expansion to the loss of acres in sorghum, hay, and oats in IL.
Hurt told HAT when he runs the numbers, based on trend line yields, the end result if not pretty, “I get a corn crop that would total 14.3 billion bushels and that would push the carry over number to over 2 billion bushels. That would suggest a corn price of $3.40 for a season average price and corn prices at harvest in the low $3.00 range.” He said the lower soybean number will reduce carryover and would keep soybean prices above $9.00.
His advice is for farmers to think again about planting corn, “The purpose of this report is to give farmers the opportunity to adjust their planting decisions. This report shows we just have too much corn and that if realized producers could see prices over a dollar under the cost of production.”
Other findings include:
All wheat planted area for 2016 is estimated at 49.6 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015.
Winter wheat planted area, at 36.2 million acres, down 8 percent from last year.
All cotton planted area for 2016 is expected to total of 9.56 million acres, 11 percent up from last year.
Sorghum growers intend to plant 7.22 million acres in 2016, down 15 percent from 2015. Kansas and Texas, the leading sorghum-producing states, account for 74 percent of the expected United States acreage.
Find the full report here: www.nass.usda.gov.