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More Rain Less Heat in the Forecast

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More Rain Less Heat in the Forecast

Ryan Martin
Ryan Martin

While the showers this week have been scattered across Indiana, overall coverage across the corn belt has been adequate. Hoosier Ag Today’s Chief Meteorologist Ryan Martin says, “I would put coverage at 75%. There were some areas that did not get good coverage, mostly in SE Missouri and Southern Illinois.” He said most other areas got at least ¼ of an inch and some as much as 4 inches of rain.

While there are still those forecasters who are calling for a hot dry summer, Martin says so far the facts do not support that viewpoint, “This weeks USDA’s crop updates showed no decline in the corn condition and only a 1% drop in the condition of the soybeans. All the talk about hot and dry will not be a factor.” He sees dry conditions most of next week but not excessively dry and it will be warm but not excessively hot.

We saw a major market move this week based on the rain in the forecast, and a lot of the long fund positions sold corn and soybean contracts very aggressively. Martin says the weather will continue to be a market factor both on the bearish and the bullish side of the market, “The weather will continue to move the market because we still have a lot of long positions in the market.  We could see a market move if the forecast looks wet or to dry.”

Martin says, for the rest of this week, we should put together a pretty dry, tranquil finish, “There may be a bit of lingering shower action into early Thursday morning, but coverage will be minor. Dry weather holds from Thursday afternoon through Friday and Saturday. A few scattered showers return later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Rain totals will be mostly small, a few hundredths to about .4”, coverage raised to around 70%. However, the latest models do not move that moisture out as quickly, meaning we can see additional showers through Monday and Monday night if the current solution holds, and perhaps through Tuesday. That additional moisture may be .25”-.5” with coverage at 70%. In any case, look for plenty of clouds for the start of next week, even if we do not see the increased rains come to fruition.”



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