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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

·         Greece may run out of cash as soon as February 25 as people hoard cash and withhold tax payments.

·         A critical meeting is scheduled today between Greek leaders and its European lenders, but Greece is also refusing to accept more than 15 billion-euro in short term loans as it demands renegotiating its debt.

·         The euro is lower and dollar is stronger as global traders wait for the results of the meeting.

·         Crude oil again leads the commodity complex with modest weakness this morning amid the firmer dollar.

·         Grain and oilseed prices are generally 2 to 3 cents lower on this broad-based light selling.

·         South Korea’s largest feed maker bought up to 5.0 million bushels of optional origin corn and 2.0 million bushels of feed wheat.

·         The 6- to 10-day period has turned even colder for the Midwest, but snowfall expectations have risen as well to protect wheat.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., showers lingered in NC (.10 to .50”) yesterday. The weekend cold push in the Midwest poses a low winterkill risk in central OH, where snow cover is limited. Colder 6 to 10 day trends could lead to much more extensive sub-0°F readings in the Midwest and northeast Plains, but the models also support much more snow that would again avert wheat damage.

The Delta continues to see enhanced shower potential in the 6 to 15 day that should begin to ease prolonged winter dryness prior to spring growth. Shower chances also improved for OK, which remains the main driest spot in the Plains wheat belt.

In South America, scattered showers lingered in Mato Grosso, southern/eastern Goias, southwest Minas Gerais, central/eastern Sao Paulo, southwest Parana, far northeast Mato Grosso do Sul, and central/southern Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil yesterday, but the wettest weather through the weekend will favor central areas.

Showers also expand into the northwest next week but should begin to shift back south again in the 11 to 15 day. The rains will be beneficial to recharge moisture for late soy growth in RGDS, where this week’s rain outlook is now not quite as extensive. Northeast Brazil is not as favored for follow-up rains in the 6 to 15 day, and this could leave better than 1/3 of coffee prone to slipping moisture again.

Argentina will see limited showers for the balance of this week, with rains favoring the west in the 6 to 10 day but a wetter 11 to 15 day trend. Corn/soy remains in very good shape, and the 11 to 15 day showers would help to sustain high yields. Only a few spots in central/eastern Buenos Aires would be left with much risk for dryness (10% of belt). The CFS 16 to 30 day trended drier in Argentina and wetter in Brazil, but southern Brazil/northern Argentina are more likely to be favored for rain.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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