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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

·         Soybeans are strongest in the overnight as buying is fueled by worries over the seemingly annual trucker protests in Brazil and strength in meal.

·         Reports note that the protests have blocked some diesel shipments for harvest – but port operations are normal and that wait times are much better than in previous years at this date.

·         Safras Mercado estimated Brazil Soybean harvest 17% complete vs. 11% last week, 31% last year and 23% for the long term average.

·         Texas Dept of Agriculture reported that Wheat was rated at 44% good to excellent – unchanged from last week.

·         Egypt is tendering for an unspecified amount of US wheat for April 1-25 delivery.

·         Fed Reserve Chair Yellen will deliver the semi-annual monetary report testimony at 9:00am CST.

·         Crude is higher, Dollar is higher, Gold is lower, Stocks are mixed in overnight trade.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., a mix of rain/snow/sleet fell across the Delta/Southeast (.10 to .75”) yesterday. Another cold push late this week is likely to produce spotty winterkill in a narrow band in northern parts of IL/IN that lack adequate snow protection. Significant snow is likely to develop in the Plains this weekend and spread across the Midwest early next week. This should add needed protection from the ongoing cold pattern over the next 2 weeks. Plains wheat needs the moisture to aid spring growth next month. The Delta is likely to see additional rain/snow in the 6 to 15 day from a couple of systems. This will ensure that soil moisture deficits that developed over the winter are eradicated, aiding wheat growth and early-seeded corn later in March.

In South America, showers scattered across southwest Mato Grosso, far northern Goias, central/eastern Bahia, northwest/ far eastern Minas Gerais, northern/southwest Espirito Santo, central/northwest Mato Grosso do Sul, southwest Parana, and spotty sections of northern/eastern Rio Grande do Sul yesterday. Scattered showers gradually expand from Thursday through Saturday in the northwest. The 6 to 15 day then has limited breaks in between showers, and safrinha corn seeding will likely remain at least a week behind normal in Mato Grosso. Weekend showers will aid coffee/sugar growth, and RGDS will also continue to see occasional showers to recharge topsoil moisture for soy. Argentina will pick up widespread rain into Wednesday that will aid late corn/soy growth but may cause localized flooding in Cordoba/Santa Fe. 6 to 10 day showers will not be as notable, but a projected break in the rain by the 11 to 15 day will be welcome in Cordoba/northern Santa Fe to limit wetness issues. Buenos Aires will see moisture slip, but moisture is largely adequate for the time being.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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