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Morning Outlook



Overnight Highlights

·         Greece finds a way to live another day, allowing the euro to rise and the dollar to slide. However, Greece now focuses on how to pay its bills next week, while negotiating for more aid from creditors demanding more reform.

·         The dollar is down a “mere” 475 points this morning, but still remains near 12-year highs.

·         Grain and oilseed prices are modestly higher on today’s weakness, but gains are limited by waning demand.

·         Weekend rains are expected to favor the South, but then be less active through early in the 11- to 15-day period.

·         Argentine rains are benefiting late-pod filling soybeans.

·         Showers over dry areas of the Southern Plains were mostly 0.25” or less, but totals of up to 1” were seen in southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and near the Texas/Oklahoma border. The next 10 days turn drier once again.

·         The dollar continues to be a significant influencer of grain and oilseed prices ahead of spring planting.

·         Today is a quadruple witching day on Wall Street, when stock index futures and options, single-stock futures and equity options all expire, sometimes creating significant volatility.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., showers were mostly quite light (.25” or less) and scattered in the S. Plains and central Midwest yesterday, but .25 to 1” totals were noted in much of southwest KS/northwest OK and near the TX/OK border. The Plains revert to a drier pattern for the next 10 days, with only patchy relief from a few showers in the 11 to 15 day.

Occasional 80s also occur in the south to help draw down soil moisture. April showers will remain important in much of OK/NE/KS to prevent stress from building. 16 to 30 day showers may offer some improvement in OK, but the C. Plains are expected to remain drier than normal.

Weekend rains will slow early corn seeding in the Deep South, but seeding opportunities improve from later next week into early in the 11 to 15 day. Rains then become more active again into early April to slow seeding and reintroduce possible wetness risks in northern Delta wheat. Rains will also aid pre-planting moisture early next week for the northwest Midwest, in addition to welcome light showers for Pacific Northwest wheat before drier conditions return.

In South America, showers (.50 to 2”, locally 3.5”) in Brazil favored northern/eastern Mato Grosso, western Minas Gerais, Goias, and N. Sao Paulo yesterday. Showers gradually contract from northeast corn/soy areas to just coffee areas in the next 5 days. Showers return to the south at mid-week and spread north late next week. The break in rains this weekend into early next week aids soy harvest. 11 to 15 day rains again focus in the north and benefit second-crop corn.

Argentina rains (.25 to .75”, locally 1.5”) were confined to the southwest yesterday but have expanded into northern Buenos Aires/southern Santa Fe and should aid soy filling. Showers revert back to the western 1/3 this weekend and still favor the south next week to benefit late soy filling further. Early corn/soy harvest progress is not likely to be notably impacted.

Morning Market Snapshot


All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.




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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

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