Home Market Market Watch Morning Outlook

Morning Outlook

SHARE

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/03/image00959.jpg

Overnight Highlights

·         Crude oil is modestly lower this morning as fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East ease somewhat as the trade focuses again on the possibility of rising supplies if sanctions against Iran are lifted.

·         The dollar is modestly higher this morning, but currency traders will be watching revised 4th Quarter GDP results to be released at 7:30 CDT this morning, with expectations that the Department of Commerce will show growth of 2.4%, up from 2.2% previously.

·         That will be followed at 9 a.m. CDT by the consumer sentiment index, which Wall Street expects to come in at 92.1, up from 91.2 previously.

·         Grain and oilseed prices are expected to be fairly choppy within their recent trading ranges as traders square positions ahead of next Tuesday morning’s highly-anticipated USDA quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports. Pre-report trade expectations that are being priced into the market are as follows:

2015

Quarterly Stocks

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA March 1 Estimates

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

1.140

7.609

1.346

Highest Trade Estimate

1.200

7.800

1.404

Lowest Trade Estimate

1.083

7.459

1.273

USDA Previous Year

1.057

7.008

0.994

Water Street Solutions

1.163

7.459

1.304

 

USDA March 31 Acreage

2015-16

Corn

Soybeans

All Wheat

Winter Wheat

Spring Wheat

Durum

millions of acres

USDA March 1 Survey Results

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

88.731

85.919

55.796

40.727

13.334

1.759

Highest Trade Estimate

89.700

88.000

56.800

42.000

14.503

2.202

Lowest Trade Estimate

87.000

83.100

54.950

40.425

12.500

1.400

USDA Previous Year

90.597

83.701

56.822

42.399

13.025

1.398

Water Street Solutions

88.900

86.800

55.753

40.673

13.350

1.730

 

·         The International Grains Council anticipates a decline in global corn and wheat production in the 2015-16 marketing year, leading to shrinking surplus stocks.

·         Private weather forecasting firm MDA CropCast released weather forecasts for the Midwest growing season Thursday evening, calling for generally favorable conditions that would support a national average corn yield of 167.5 bushels per acre and soybean yield of 45.9 bushels per acre.

·         The 6- to 10-day outlook has trended wetter for the Midwest and drier for the Delta this morning.

·         Patchy showers are expected in dry areas of the Central Plains in the 6- to 15-day period, but those showers are only expected to provide very limited relief.

·         Argentine weather is expected to be favorably dry over the next week to facilitate early harvest progress, while rains provide favorable moisture for safrinha corn in Brazil.

Commodity Weather Group Forecast

In the U.S., lingering showers occurred in the eastern OH and TN Valleys and near the Gulf Coast, although a few very light showers extended from southwest ND/central SD into eastern NE/northeast KS. After a mostly dry/cool weekend, light showers reach the northern Delta on Sunday night. A more active storm track does develop still in the 6 to 15 day, favoring the southern Midwest and northern Delta.

This will still threaten to rebuild wetness concerns for soft wheat near and south of the OH River in early April, although flooding threats are low for the time being. The rains will also aid pre-planting moisture for the Midwest in all but far northwest areas, and interruptions to southern Delta corn seeding are more limited in the 6 to 10 day. However, a continuation of wet weather in the OH Valley and Delta may still threaten more notable seeding delays and wetness concerns in the 16 to 30 day. Patchy rain chances in the Plains 6 to 15 day outlook may offer slight relief for NE, but amounts likely remain light. The 16 to 30 day is also unfavorably dry/warm for much of the Plains wheat belt.

In South America, rains (.25 to 1.5”) in Brazil scattered across western areas yesterday, encompassing much of the safrinha corn belt. Showers continue to focus on western Brazil safrinha corn areas through the weekend, easing moisture shortages in the southeast 1/3 of the belt. Rains shift to the north half of crop areas in the 6 to 10 day, aiding late coffee/sugar development. Showers expand back to the south in the 11 to 15 day, which is needed for corn.

Soy harvest delays this weekend should ease next week, as showers look slower to increase in most models. 16 to 30 day rains still favor safrinha corn, setting the stage for good yields.

Argentina dried yesterday and should remain drier until late next week, improving early corn/soy harvest. Rains then increase late in the 6 to 10 day. Combined with a wetter 16 to 30 day outlook, delays could mount.

Morning Market Snapshot

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/03/image01062.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/03/image01159.jpg

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com//wp-content/uploads//2015/03/image01259.png

www.waterstreet.org 
or 1-866-249-2528

 

 

https://www.waterstreet.org/s/ws-80x70.png

Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

The information contained in this e-mail message is intended only for the personal and confidential use of the recipient(s) named above. This message may be an attorney-client communication and/or work product and as such is privileged and confidential. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient or an agent responsible for delivering it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by e-mail, and delete the original message. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity provider. Water Street Solutions is an equal opportunity employer.